Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Winter is back in the Olympics! However, you could trigger avalanches that involve all the new snow. These slides would be most likely on steep convex rollovers and below sharp cornices.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Most of the new snow should be light and fluffy, but if you find the right combination of factors, it might form a slab. In these places, you could trigger an avalanche that fails at or near the base of the new snow. 

    You may find a slab: 

    • On steep convex rollovers
    • In rocky unsupported terrain
    • In places the wind drifted the snow deeper
    • On slopes where the sun helps settle the snow

    In all these instances, avalanches should stay relatively small (< 12in deep). However, since there are still so many obstacles to hit, even a tiny slide could turn nasty

    Small slopes, uptrack tests, and hang pits can all give you valuable insight into the upper snowpack and how it might fail under your weight.

    (1/6/2024)

    Example: Steep rocky and unsuppoted terrain like this is where you could trigger avalanches Sunday. 

    Photo: Rob Coppolillo

Avalanche Discussion

A winter storm brought a nice blanket of fresh snow to the Olympics. On Sunday, you could see a bit of sunshine. Since it’s a cold day in January, the effect should be pretty minor, but you might see snow shedding from rocks and trees. This could form piles of small rollerballs or trigger a very small loose slide. Increasing clouds later in the day, should keep this from being a big concern. 

On Saturday, NPS rangers reported 8in of new snow at Hurricane Ridge. This produced mostly small loose dry sluffs along road cuts and one very small soft slab avalanche (ENE, Sunrise Bowl). On southerly aspects, this often fell on bare ground. In shaded terrain, it overlays the stout and prominent 1/2 crust. This can provide an effective bed surface to allow avalanches to travel easily downhill. Test slopes showed very small isolated cracks, but the snow generally didn’t move. 

One of the biggest stories continues to be the shallow snowpack and abundance of obstacles. It may look soft and white, but rocks, bushes, holes, creeks, and logs could lurk just under the surface.

NWAC may issue a gray "No Rating" for an elevation band when there is not enough snow to present an avalanche hazard.

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