Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will increase throughout the day as another storm moves into the area. Anticipate dry snow, slab avalanches at all elevations as snow levels decrease. Sheltered terrain should offer some respite from strong winds and decreasing visibility.

A much stronger winter storm and High avalanche danger are forecast for the day after Christmas.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Weather forecasts this week brought continued hope for dry snow, but reality delivered mostly rain and sticky goo. Wednesday is forecast to break that pattern with lowering snow levels and more precipitation. Moderate to strong winds should become even stronger by day’s end. Assess stability in all terrain - not just wind loaded slopes - and expect to see conditions deteriorate in the afternoon.

    Track new snow depth and distribution as you gain elevation and change aspects. Use simple tests to assess stability before committing to steep terrain. Shooting cracks and fresh avalanches are a sign you could trigger an avalanche if you head onto a steep slope. Stormy conditions might keep you off big and steep slopes not matter what you find.

    (12/16/2024)

    Recent studies have shown that small slab avalanches on test slopes are the number one sign you could trigger a bigger avalanche on a larger slope.

    Photo: Gregg Oliveri

Avalanche Discussion

Avoid travel on or immediately below steep slopes where you see fresh rollerballs or wet avalanches, or simply find wet, mushy snow. Snow levels and temperatures have recently trended warmer than expected and Christmas Day could bring more of the same.

Instead of being colder with lower snow levels than the weekend, Monday night brought similar or even warmer conditions to much of West North. Precipitation amounts also diverged from what was expected with only 50-75% of forecast amounts. A few inches of new snow had accumulated at Heather Meadows by Monday afternoon as snow levels dropped slightly.

Observations were limited on Tuesday. A single large natural avalanche was reported from backcountry terrain adjacent to the Mount Baker Ski Area. It likely released early in the morning during the peak of precipitation and with the strongest winds. On Monday, avalanche control work produced a handful of large avalanches in upper-elevation, wind-loaded terrain.

There is 12-24” of snow over 12/21 crust, which is starting to freeze up and become supportable under the new snow. A good bond between the crust and the layer above has been reported from mid-elevations. You may find a firmer, slicker crust below the new snow as you gain elevation. 

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