Avalanche forecast

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Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The possibility remains for skiers and riders to trigger large avalanches involving weak snow that was buried in late November.   Weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack, now buried an average of 3' down will be most susceptible to human triggers on steep slopes (>30 degrees), around rocky outcrops, and wind-scoured terrain features.  Careful route selection, limiting exposure in avalanche terrain, and safe travel techniques are all prudent for those traveling in the backcountry.  

This forecast is sponsored by Outlaw Motorsports, located in Enterprise, OR.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We are beginning to enter a lower-probability, high-consequence game in terms of the persistent slab problem.  As the weak faceted snow that formed in late October and early November becomes more deeply buried in the snowpack the likelihood of triggering a large avalanche diminishes.  This doesn't mean the likelihood has gone to zero.  Areas where you are at the greatest risk, are near and above the treeline on all North facing slopes and also east aspects.  Common trigger points like steep convex rolls, shallow areas closer to the ridgeline, and rocky outcroppings should all be suspect.  If you follow along closely with our forecasts you will likely notice that each time we see a significant loading event (new snow or moderate winds) the danger increases.  

    Remote triggered persistent slab while riding in the Northern Wallowas on 12/11.  Slab failed on weak faceted snow near the ground.  

    Photo: Dustin James

Avalanche Discussion

The break in the stormy weather and sunny skies offers a great opportunity to get out and enjoy the beautiful mountains of NE OR.   It can also tempt us into questionable decision-making.  We had an active avalanche cycle last weekend, especially in the Wallowas.  Check out the photos below, which demonstrate that with a heavy enough load the weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack is susceptible.  We are now looking at a healthy upper snowpack with about 3' of snow (without many layers of concern) resting on top of the weak early-season snow.   I would recommend reading through the recent observations here before you plan your next trip into the mountains.  

In most of our forecasting zones, our primary concern is the November Drought Layer, which is weak snow that makes up the bottom 1/3 of the snowpack.  Forecasters are still seeing failures on this layer in our snowpack tests.  Remember although most human-powered travelers can impact the upper 3' of the snowpack, snowmobilers can influence the upper 8' of the snowpack.  Likely trigger points are in areas where there is less of a slab above the weak early-season snow.  This will be around rocky outcroppings, closer to ridgelines and areas where the wind has removed snow.  Triggering this persistent slab could lead to an unsurvivable avalanche.  Although the avalanche danger rating has been dropped to moderate, human-triggered avalanches are possible.  

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