Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Above treeline, use visual clues like fresh cornices and wind-sculpted snow to identify where older wind slabs may lurk below ridgelines.  In very steep terrain, don't let a fast-running sluff knock you off your feet above a terrain trap. At lower elevations and areas with a shallow and weak snowpack, you may experience whumpfs or collapses in the snowpack.  Travel cautiously in terrain with this snowpack character and enough snow to ride. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We're several days away from the last major storm cycle and observers have noted fairly minimal wind-affected snow at mid and higher terrain.  However, cornices have grown larger over the last week and there's still a fair bit we don't know about our early-season snowpack at higher elevations.  Steer around slopes steeper than 35 degrees with recent wind loading and overhanging cornices.  

    While we're focused on older wind slabs there is plenty of low density snow to blow around. Pay attention if the wind picks up and starts to move a significant amount of snow.  

    (11/27/2022)

    Cracking of wind-stiffened slabs near Stevens Pass Mountain Resort.

    Photo: Joe Dellaporta

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    There's a lot of fresh, soft snow out there to enjoy.  Before engaging with very steep wind-sheltered terrain, take stock of your surroundings.  Loose avalanches may be big enough to knock you off of your feet. These avalanches could push you into a dangerous area if you're not paying attention.  Even though the snowpack is building quickly, you could be injured by hitting shallowly buried logs or other obstacles. 

     

    (2/27/2022) A natural loose dry avalanche, size D1.5 that occured on February 27th, 2022. 6,500ft WSW, Cutthrout creek. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Avalanche Discussion

We're starting to get a better picture of the early season snowpack in the zone.  The recent storm snow is generally well settled above the late November crusts at mid-elevations.  Weak snow (facets) exist near these crusts but no avalanches have been observed on these layers nor are snowpack tests concerning.  Some wind effect has been noted among higher ridgelines and along with fresh cornice growth but observations are more limited above treeline.  Overall avalanche activity has been minimal with small dry loose avalanches triggered on very steep slopes and only a one slab avalanche was noted following the Tue/Wed storm.  

Fresh reports from the Washington Pass area and near the Methow Valley describe a weak and shallow snowpack with widespread collapsing and whumpfs felt by travelers.  Despite this scary setup, thinner snowdepths and a lack of a denser slab overlying the weak snow are likely minimizing the potential for avalanches.  We do have critical observations to the south from Thursday 12/1 where whumpfs and avalanches were reported in the Mission Ridge area, and observers noted collapses outside of Holden and up the Icicle.  Persistent slabs have been added to the East Central forecast.  There are likely areas in the East North where the right structure exists and a persistent slab avalanche is possible.  As you step out into winter, watch for direct signs of instability like shooting cracks, whumpfs and recent avalanches and adjust your terrain. 

Across the zone, an inch or more of water was recorded at area weather stations Tuesday through Wednesday night.  This translated to 12-18" of new snow with a growing snowpack at all elevations.  There was a slight warming trend towards the end of the heaviest precipitation Wednesday morning.  Snowdepths are healthy for early December, in the 3-5' range at mid-upper elevations and 1.5-2' even in the valleys and foothills. The most recent rain crust in the upper snowpack formed after rain fell up to about 7,600ft at Blue Lake Col on November 25th. 

Avoid an early season injury in areas with lower snow cover; be mindful of shallowly buried trees, rocks, and open creeks.  And brrrr...it doesn't look like it's warming up any time soon so make sure to bring extra layers and supplies to stay warm. 

If you're out, let us know what you see by submitting an observation.

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