Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

2024 is starting off with generally safe avalanche conditions due to below-average snowfall and uneventful weather recently. The best skiing and riding can be found on northerly-facing slopes that are sheltered from previous winds. In those same areas, you may encounter small loose dry avalanches on steep slopes. One of the few locations where you may still be able to trigger a slab avalanche would be at higher elevations where a hard slab is sitting on a previously wind-loaded slope. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    After below-average snowfall for the last three weeks, weak layers near the ground are dormant on many slopes. A northerly wind event on 12/25 and 12/26 formed a newer generation of persistent slabs on leeward terrain features where hard, drifted slabs buried facets or faceted crusts in the upper snowpack. Those newer slabs have now also become stubborn or unreactive to triggering. The last human-triggered slab avalanche occurred on 12/27, while an explosively triggered slab avalanche was pried out on 12/30. The most concerning terrain feature would be where a hard slab is hanging on an unsupported slope, due to a convex roll or in extreme terrain.

    Train your eye to look for those hard slabs. They will most commonly be hanging out on the lee sides of ridgelines or in concave terrain features.

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack in the Gunnison River Basin is currently flatlined at 72% of the median. We have 98 days left until the median peak, so there is lots of time left to set new records. The hard slabs created by last week's wind event have become very stubborn to triggering, or are unreactive. Those slabs also somewhat policed themselves over the last week. The snow surface where they exist is hard and variable, and not the best for riding. The dry weather is also causing the snowpack to further weaken and facet. This process helps keep the snow surface soft in wind-sheltered locations, but it also slowly adds volume for loose snow avalanches. We have yet to observe any significant sluffs. So far they have remained small in size and relatively easy to manage. You can expect to encounter this avalanche problem on steep northerly facing slopes. As the faceting process continues we need to keep our eye out for the day that these sluffs become larger and more difficult to manage. Hopefully, we have new snow avalanche problems to talk about before that happens. 

Happy New Year from the team at the CBAC. We will be out surfing the low tide conditions and enjoying what we have, all while keeping an eye out for any changes. We hope to see you out there too, doing the same! 

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