Avalanche forecast

Uintas

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The good news is we are trending in the right direction and there are plenty of slopes that offer predictably, straight-forward avy danger. However, in the wind zone, above treeline it's a slightly different animal and I'd step out with caution in the alpine. Steep, rocky, wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass remain likely suspects and present MODERATE avalanche danger. And while all the right players would have to align, human triggered avalanches breaking to old November snow are POSSIBLE. Remember... any slide failing near the ground will break deeper and wider than you might expect, instantly throwing a curve ball at your day

The danger is LOW below treeline at low elevations and on all south and southwest-facing slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Avy-savvy, snow-pro extraordinaire Andy Nassetta demonstrates his extended column test (ECT). Andy's results (ECTP 16) suggest it's getting more difficult to trigger a slide, but the column fails about 30 cm above the ground, echoing our concerns that once triggered, avalanches can break to old November, producing a bigger slide than you might've bargained for.

    Here's the deal-

    The good news is... the snowpack is adjusting to last weeks big storm and in general, becoming comfortable in its own skin. The not so good news is, we have a structurally challenged snowpack... strong snow resting on weak snow and that's always a tricky setup. But, there's no secret handshake here and if we get our shovels out and take a deeper dive it's clear to see a cohesive piece of snow or what we in snow-geek-speak call a slab, resting on top a persistent weak layer (PWL), about a foot off the ground. We've got plenty of choices and there's miles of terrain to ride safely today. In fact, I think you'd really have to go hunting for an avalanche and all the right players need to align. If your travels take you into alpine terrain, steep, rocky, wind drifted slopes in the wind zone feels like the right cast of characters that could come into play and throw a wrench in your day.

Special Announcement

Please join me for a current conditions, State of the Snowpack prezo at Inspired Summits HQ (8178 Gorgoza Pines Road) Friday night at 6:00. Guaranteed to be informative, educational, and inside sources tell me... it'll be entertaining. Note... parrot sold separately :)

Also... join the UAC and Young Powersports in Centerville tonight, Thursday, December 14th, from 5 - 7 PM for a FREE avalanche transceiver training. Details here.

Recent Activity

On Monday, I spotted this piece of snow from a distance. Breaking to old November snow, I suspect this large pocket on a steep, rocky, unsupported slope in Upper Chalk Creek occurred late in the weekend storm and was most likely triggered by a small piece of cornice crashing down onto the slope below.

Snow-pros, Joey Manship and Andy Nassetta gathered a ton of info from Smith-Moorehouse yesterday and have a most excellent trip report.

Trip reports and the latest observations are found HERE.

Snow and Weather

Nowcast- Clouds hung out a little longer than I expected yesterday, but thinned out late in the day and have since moved on with a beauty of a morning is developing. Currently, skies are clear, winds are light, and temperatures register in the teens and mid 20's. Sunny slopes have taken on heat the past few days and offer variable conditions, while riding and turning conditions remain quite good on shady slopes where you'll find shallow, creamy pow.

Forecast- Look for sunny skies, light winds blowing from the northwest, and temperatures climbing into the 30's. Overnight lows are gonna be on the warm side, bottoming out in the 20's.

Futurecast- Looking to bring your winter tanning game to the next level? Well then... this is our week! Sunny skies, warm temperatures, and generally light winds are on tap through the weekend. A glimmer of hope for fresh snow develops midweek.

Even though it may seem like a slow start to the season, the snowpack is about average (scroll to the bottom of the forecast for more info). There are 3 basic layers in the snowpack (1) old snow from October and mainly November with a crust from mid-November, (2) snow from the warm, wet storm from the first weekend of December with a crust on top of it, and (3) snow from last Friday which favored the northern part of the Uintas.

Additional Info

Huge thanks to Rylan from Young Powersports for trusting me with the keys to the backcountry kingdom as well the keys to this 2023 Polaris. The decades old "loaner sled" partnership with Polaris allows me to see more terrain, issue more accurate forecasts, and ultimately saves lives! Note to self... always remember to grab the keys to the sled before leaving the dealer :)

While it seems like a slow start to the season, in terms of water amounts, SNOTEL sites in the Western Uintas generally have median values. White dots are at the median. Green are a little above, and beige dots are a little below. Click on the image for an interactive map from the NRCS.

We are always looking for snow and avalanche observations or just general riding conditions. So... if you see something, say something. You can reach me directly at [email protected] or 801-231-2170.

Also, if you're looking for more avy education opportunities for yourself, your crew, or your club please don't hesitate to reach out to me and we'll find a presentation, class, or clinic for ya!

General Announcements

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

Issued at 04:15 on Thursday, December 14th this forecast will be updated by 0700 Friday, December 15th, 2023.

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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