Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Weak sugary snow at the bottom of the snowpack makes it possible to trigger an avalanche breaking near the ground. Anywhere there is sufficient snow to get you off the ground you can find this avalanche problem. To avoid triggering these avalanches stick to terrain less than 30 degrees.

This forecast is sponsored by: The Avalanche Hour Podcast.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Snow that fell in the late Fall and early Winter has turned into weak sugary snow. On top of this weak snow, there are several layers of more dense snow and some very dense crusts. Around some of these dense crusts, thin layers of weak snow have developed.  This snowpack structure creates a Persistent Slab avalanche problem. Persistent Slabs are just as they sound: slab avalanches with danger that persists due to the weak snowpack structure. These avalanches are difficult to predict and often give no warning signs. The best way to not get caught in an avalanche is to avoid the terrain they exist in.

    No avalanche danger rating has been applied to the below treeline band due to the lack of sufficient snow cover at that elevation.

     

    Photo: Nick Burks

Avalanche Discussion

After a very slow start to what the calendar says is Winter, the Wallowa Avalanche Center is beginning the regular forecasting schedule today. That means avalanche forecasts on Thursday-Sunday and a General Advisory message on Monday.

Small amounts of snow that fell during our prolonged autumn have rotted and turned weak. On top of this several rain storms or periods of above-freezing temperatures have created crusts. Snow depths range from nothing in the below treeline zone to 90cm/3ft in the above treeline terrain. While the upper portion of the snowpack feels sturdy, there are thin layers of weak snow around the melt-freeze and rain crusts and the base of the snowpack contains a combination of well-developed facets mixed with rounded grains. This snowpack structure creates a Persistent Slab avalanche problem.

The Persistent Slab avalanche problem is a tricky one. You can't see it by visually scanning the mountains. It isn't obvious on the surface of the snow. Even if you dig down and conduct stability tests the results can be hard to interpret and inconclusive. This is the dreaded low likelihood, high consequence scenario. You might not trigger one of these avalanches or even know it is there, but if you do, it will break near the ground and take all the dense snow on top of it with it.

The best way to avoid getting caught in one of these slides is to avoid where they exist. That means anywhere snow has stuck around since Fall, has more snow on top of it, and is steeper than 30 degrees. Given the shallow snowpack everywhere there are a lot of obstacles that would make taking a ride in an avalanche particularly nasty. Lots of rocks, trees, stumps, and down timber are on the surface or very shallowly buried.

If you get out to slide or ride please send us your observations! A picture or quick description of the conditions you encountered is SO helpful in creating these avalanche forecasts for you.

 

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