Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger a 2-4 foot thick avalanche on some slopes. Unfortunately, figuring out exactly which slopes are dangerous is almost impossible. You may be able to trigger avalanches remotely—from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes. Choose simple, lower-angled terrain to reduce your risk. Today's storm may form thin, sensitive slabs of wind drifted snow at upper elevations in the western half of this zone.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    You could trigger a 2-4' thick persistent slab avalanche on buried weak layers (sugary facets or crust + facet combinations). This problem is worst on middle and upper elevation slopes facing W-NW-N-NE-E-SE. 

    Unfortunately, unstable slopes probably won't provide obvious signs of instability, like snowpack collapsing or cracks shooting out in front of you. Snowpack stability tests are likely to be inconclusive and are of limited use. Tracks on a slope don't mean it's safe. Avalanches can be triggered by the second, third, or fourth rider on a slope. In low probability/high consequence situations like this, there's a good chance the first sign of instability you'll see is the avalanche you trigger.

    The likelihood of triggering a slide is not that high, but the thick, dense slab makes the consequences severe. Persistent weak layers can fail unpredictably and break wider and higher on slopes than you might expect. You can reduce, but not eliminate, your risk by avoiding slopes steeper than about 35 degrees—especially large avalanche paths and those with ugly consequences if you are caught in a slide.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: Today's storm may form thin, sensitive slabs of wind drifted snow at upper elevations. These slabs will be more dangerous in the Soldiers where more snow is expected. Look for smooth pillows of windblown snow near ridgelines and mid-slope gullies. Loose snow avalanches are possible during periods of intense snowfall. They may also occur during brief periods of sunshine, especially in very steep, rocky terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

Today's avalanche conditions are tricky. Wind slabs at upper elevation may become an issue this afternoon. These slabs will be the most obvious problem today, but they should be easy to identify and avoid. Persistent slabs, on the other hand, are the trickier and more dangerous avalanche problem, the one that should dictate the type of terrain we choose to ride. Watch Ben's video from Baker Creek to get a quick sense of this problem (video). This video shows the general setup that we're looking at across the forecast area; a dense slab of snow sits atop weak layers that were formed and buried in February.

Our last major storm ended over a week ago, and the stability is slowly improving. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche is becoming less likely. Unfortunately, less likely doesn't mean impossible, and given the expected size of a triggered slide going for a ride will likely be unsurvivable. We often refer to this type of scenario as low likelihood/high consequence. In other words, we may be able to get away with a lot... until we don't.

The way we travel needs to reflect this uncertainty and unpredictability. The frustrating reality is that many slopes have the right ingredients to slide, and there's no way to know if your chosen path will hit the sweet spot that releases a deadly avalanche.

While not particularly satisfying, you can effectively keep out of harm's way by avoiding avalanche terrain, including the base of slopes greater than 30 degrees. Short of avoidance, you can reduce your risk by choosing to steer clear of shadier, more northerly aspects and by sticking to simpler, lower angled terrain.

Regions covered