Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

As snow continues to trickle in, there's a possibility that you can trigger a small or medium-sized avalanche on Saturday. Snow may form into slightly stiffer wind-drifted deposits, which are features to avoid on steep slopes near and above treeline. If snow is not wind-affected, it may run loosely down a steep slope, especially in areas with a crust underneath on southerly aspects. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Minimal wind slab development was noted on Friday, and small dry loose avalanches seemed to be the biggest problem. Light to moderate winds are forecasted on Saturday and small slabs may develop. They will probably remain shallow, around 6 inches deep, and will most likely be found at higher elevations where wind has more influence. 

    Expect any slabs that form to be soft, not much harder than nearby non-wind-affected areas. They will likely build up near features like gullies, below ridgelines, or around outcroppings. Doing frequent small hand pits could help you with identifying slightly heavier snow over softer snow. If you notice any cracking, that's also an indicator of a potentially reactive slab. Steer around slopes greater than 35 degrees if you suspect they could harbor wind slabs. 

    This is an example of an unusual mix of shallow wind slab and sluff, something like you may encounter Saturday. 

Avalanche Discussion

As previously mentioned, loose dry avalanches may be what you encounter on Saturday, possibly even more than slab avalanches. They'll be more active on very steep slopes, and in areas with a crust underneath, which is the case on southerly aspects. You could trigger a loose avalanche if you're on or entering steep terrain. It's important to be aware of any "sluff" around you, or one that you may be sending down onto someone else. Temperatures and sun probably won't get warm enough to cause a problem with wet loose avalanches, but this time of year it's something to always keep on your mind. Regarding all types of avalanches right now, if you trigger or get caught in one it might not be big enough to bury you, but if you're out in high-consequence terrain they could take you for a scary ride and still possibly kill you.  

Over 6 inches of low-density snow is currently on the surface, with a generally right-side-up top meter of the snowpack as found by forecaster Lee Lazzara in the Baker backcountry on Friday. He found excellent skiing conditions, with very minor, unreactive slabs, but sluffing on steep slopes. Any slight weather changes could lead to a variety of different avalanche problems, keeping us sitting at Moderate avalanche danger. He did note extremely large cornices, which are just waiting for the next big weather event, whether a warming event or a large, windy, load of snow, before they start crashing down. 

We're forecasted to get another couple inches of snow during the day Saturday, with a slight lull before more intense snowfall starts Sunday night. If you make it into the backcountry we'd love to hear about whether you saw avalanches or didn't see any, and what the snow was like. You can submit an observation HERE. 

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