Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Small to large human triggered wind slab avalanches are possible today above and near treeline. Yesterday, prior to the storm, wind distributed snow into pockets and on the leeward side of ridgelines and terrain features. The wind trend continues today with more snow available for transport as the current storm system delivers additional snow.  Avoid areas of loaded snow, especially at the top of ridgelines, avalanche paths, in chutes and gullies.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, prior to the storm, primarily west winds distributed existing snow onto previously wind loaded areas, reactivating some of last week's wind slab problem.  With two inches of snow delivered overnight and with another 3-5" expected today, more snow will be available for transport.  Winds today are expected to be out of the southwest and average 36 miles per hour near treeline and gust as high as 45 on ridgelines above treeline.  Some snow will be blown into the atmosphere, but other snow will collect behind ridgelines and terrain features.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Today's storm brought rain to elevations below 9,000 ft.  At slopes below and near this elevation wet loose avalanches could be activated by last night and today's rainfall.  This rain has weakened the snowpack and it may be possible, although unlikely, for backcountry recreationists to trigger small wet loose releases on very steep slopes, such as those near 40 degrees.  

Avalanche Discussion

As discussed in last week's forecast much of the upper elevation terrain of the San Francisco Peaks has either been wind scoured or wind hardened.  These conditions, in combination with sun crusts across east, south and west facing aspects, are making upper elevation travel challenging.  As a result many backcountry recreationists have turned to the lower elevation touring made available by the large storms of the past two weeks.  Today this lower elevation terrain is experiencing rain and conditions in this zone will deteriorate at an even faster rate.  There is a slim chance that on very steep slopes below 9,000 feet wet loose avalanches could occur on this snowpack as it has been weakened by last night and today's rain.  

At above treeline elevations, travel will remain challenging with high winds today and acres of rocky wind scoured terrain.  Last night approximately 2" of snow was delivered at 11,500 feet and The Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL site recorded even less, showing only .2 inches of water accumulation overnight.  Today another 4"-6" of snow is expected above 10,500".  This storm came in with west winds shifting to southwest last night.  Many of last week's wind loaded locations are being reloaded and will likely be more sensitive to triggering today.  Yesterday, the results of ECTPs were replicated near treeline at 11,600 feet.  Triggering a small, D1-D2, wind slab avalanche of 6"-12" crown height will be possible today.  If traveling near or above treeline use special caution to avoid this wind slab, especially in the midst of blowing snow, possible fog and wind.

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