Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

We'll see an abrupt change Tuesday with strong easterly winds redistributing snow at all elevations into newly formed pockets that could avalanche with a human trigger. Danger may remain on moderate, with human triggered avalanche possible, but expect more reactive slabs in wind-loaded locations than on previous days. You'll be able to see actively blowing snow and feel and see thicker, wind-affected deposits, characteristic of locations to avoid on all steep slopes on Tuesday. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh wind slabs that could react to a human trigger will develop overnight and during the day Tuesday. Many will probably only be around a foot deep or less, but they could still surprise you and take you for a scary ride, and possibly be large enough to bury you. We're currently seeing a variety of snow types at different aspects and elevations:

    The north half of the compass is holding onto dry, low-density snow. Much of this snow will redistribute as the easterly winds increase to strong overnight and during the day Tuesday. Upper elevation north slopes formed weak surface snow, which is now buried by about 6 inches of lower-density snow. Avalanches will probably be more reactive in these locations. Sunday night, surface hoar formed and might get blown down in some places and not others. You'll probably see an irregular patchwork of more and less reactive pockets, and it will probably be difficult to identify which ones will be more reactive. 

    Meanwhile, the southerly half of the compass will have a crust or possibly get a little soft, but wind-blown snow redistributing to those aspects will probably be easily identifiable. Deposits on these aspects will likely be quite shallow, but if you notice any larger expanses, steer around them on steep slopes.

    In all areas, search for actively blowing snow, noting where it's landing. Drifts are most likely to form around rocky outcroppings, in gullies, below ridgelines, and on steep rollovers. Visual clues like textured surfaces or pillowlike drifts are helpful for identifying slabs. Pay attention to long shooting cracks running from your feet or sled. There's a small chance enough snow could rapidly drift onto a weak area that a natural avalanche could even occur. Use all of these identifying factors and red flags as indicators that you should stick to slopes less than 35° . Slabs may form in unusual places or lower down on a slope than expect due to the strong wind. Even if a slope is small and it avalanches, if a terrain trap is present it could still be harmful. Read the forecast discussion to hear more about this. 

    (3/27/2023) Strong easterly winds began gusting by the summit of Lichtenburg midday Monday (5800ft). Expect them to be way stronger on Tuesday. Observe where the blowing snow lands to help you identify where wind slabs could be. Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

On Sunday a skier triggered an avalanche on a wind-loaded north-facing slope just below the summit of Mt. Lichtenburg. He was the second skier on the slope, and it released above him, catching himself and one other skier parked beneath him. They were partially buried but uninjured. You can read their observation HERE. We're glad to hear they made it out alright, and are willing to share their experience so we can all learn from it. 

I investigated the avalanche on Mt Lichtenburg on Monday and marveled at how small the slope was. It would have had a good runout except for one large concern- there was a stand of trees right in the middle of it, making getting caught a higher consequence scenario. The times I've been buried and caught in avalanches have also been on relatively small, unremarkable slopes. We tend to let our guard down if we're not standing at the top of a giant, gnarly face. Little slopes or minor terrain traps are characteristics of a good many avalanche involvements, which happens to both inexperienced travelers and seasoned professionals. Keep this in mind next time you get out, even if you're just in "mini golf" terrain. 

Slopes on the southern half of the compass got moist on Monday, and a few small wet loose avalanches occurred. They probably won't get as soft on Tuesday thanks to the strong winds. Be prepared to travel on firm surfaces if they don't soften. 

Regions covered