Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist at upper elevations as new snow and wind have formed sensitive and reactive storm slabs.  Deeper down in the snowpack weaker faceted layers of snow continue to linger in the middle and bottom of the snowpack. A storm slab avalanche on the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees, paying attention to obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks. Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain will provide better and safer riding options.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    2 plus feet of snow has fallen in the mountains over the last couple of days and an additional couple of inches of snow is expected this afternoon. Winds have mainly remained light, but have been strong enough at upper elevations to drift snow into soft reactive slabs. These slabs have been forming on top of a variety of older surfaces prior to this storm from crusts to wind slabs and near-surface facets on northerly aspects. Storm slab avalanches may fail on the old existing surface or within density changes within the new snow.  Storm slab avalanches can be large on their own and able to break widely across a slope.  In steep terrain that is more wind-sheltered, you may encounter fast-moving loose snow sluffing that could be big enough to take you off your feet and bury you in a terrain trap. A smaller storm slab or loose snow avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    This latest storm has brought over 2 feet of snow and 2.65 inches of SWE that have built slabs and loaded slopes that will continue to stress persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Near and below treeline is where you're more likely to find and impact depth hoar and faceted weak layers near the ground.  At upper elevations, faceted crusts and small-grained facet layers between harder slabs linger 3 to 5 feet below the snow surface.  Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and long propagating shooting cracks on the surface may or may not be present in travels until it's too late.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away.  A smaller point release or storm slab avalanche could step down into these deeper weak layers creating a very large and most likely unsurvivable avalanche.  These persistent slab avalanches could run long distances well into the flats below. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals so far are 24 - 28" with 2.4 - 2.65  inches of SWE. Today will bring another cloudy day, with light winds and mountain snow showers this afternoon that could bring an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow.  We'll see a brief break on Sunday with partly sunny skies before another series of storms moves into the area Monday through Thursday bringing another round of significant snow and strong winds.  Thankfully we haven't seen much sun, which is helping keep the snow cold and dry and making for really good skiing and riding conditions,  We're not expecting to see much of the sun pop out today, (most likely more of a concern on Sunday) but if it does this morning before mountain snow showers push in this afternoon, we could see a shedding cycle of loose snow avalanches in steep east and south terrain.  

This storm has fallen mostly right side up, with warmer denser snow at the start and colder drier snow since Thursday night. Although anemometers are rimmed up, winds have been light, and we haven't seen much drifting of the new snow, which is something we haven't seen much of, during this windy season so far.  Storm snow yesterday was reactive in travels, especially at upper elevations where there was enough wind to create soft sensitive slabs. Some storm slabs were breaking within the new snow on density changes, while others were full-thickness of the storm snow (2 - 3') running on the old existing surface and able to propagate 50 to 100' wide. On more wind-sheltered slopes storm snow was running like "water"  as fast-moving loose snow "sluffs" in steep terrain.  Winds are expected to remain light today out of the SW, so snow quality should remain quite good.  

The persistent weak layers near the ground that has plagued us much of the season have faced another significant test from the 2.5" of snow water equivalent.  Although natural avalanche activity is trending downward on these layers, these layers will need more time to adjust to this latest round of loading.  Near and below treeline terrain is where depth hoar near the ground continues to linger in a relatively shallow snowpack (< 1.5 m) prior to this latest storm.  Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses may or may not be present in travels and give you a false sense of security. At upper elevations, facets sandwiched between harder slabs and faceted crusts have been observed in the middle of the pack but are not widespread.  Most of these layers have been found on north and easterly aspects.  The snowpack will not get much of a break as another round of significant snow is expected Monday night through Thursday and the totality of a week of storms could push us towards 5 inches of SWE.  

Regions covered