Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a windslab will be the most likely avalanche Hazard to be encountered today.   Windslabs 10-20cm thick on the leeward sides of specific terrain features may still have the possibility of producing an avalanche large enough to injure or bury a person. Signs that you may be travelling on a windslab include hearing drum-like sounds under your feet or cracking/whomping in the snow.

There is no rating for lower elevation due to a lack of snow at sea level.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Today, our main concern in all zones continues to be the windslabs that formed earlier this week.  Expect to find 10-20 cm thick windslabs with deeper pockets in isolated areas throughout the maritime and continental zones today. Windslabs that were initially sensitive to human triggers have gained strength over the last couple of days, becoming less sensitive to triggers. There is still a possibility that a person could trigger a hazardous avalanche in certain areas where windslabs overrlie weak faceted snow. The leeward sides of mid-mountain shoulders and steep protected gullies are likely areas to find potentially sensitive windslabs.

    This avalanche problem can be managed through careful route finding and conservative terrain selection. The wind slabs will exist on terrain features that share common characteristics, such as cross-loaded gullies and lee slopes. Noting the direction and strength of the wind will help identify these terrain features. Shooting cracks and collapses (whoomps) are signs that wind slabs are reactive and have the potential to create avalanches

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  Small natural avalanches were observed on wind-loaded rollovers in Moonlight Basin on 12/31. N-R2-D1

Forecast Discussion:  

The December drought has left us with a thin, faceted (weak) snowpack with quite a bit of spatial variability. For the short term, we expect continued weakening of the snow on the ground with no immediate effect on stability or avalanche hazard. Increasing chances of snow into next week may create multiple avalanche hazards once a slab and additional load stresses these layers. Stay tuned as a pattern change is becoming likely within the next week. 

An additional concern today is the cold. There is currently a cold weather advisory for Thompson Pass and the Copper River Valley. Expect frigid temperatures and dangerous windchills through Jan 4th. 

Additional Details:  There is no field data from the Maritime zone due to low snow coverage and thick brush restricting access.  Numerous Glide avalanches have released in the Maritime zone in the mid elevation band.  Some of these may have failed without previous visible glide cracks.  Avoid travel below glide cracks as they can fail at any time.  Their likelihood of failure is independent of the snowpack stability.  Check out the season summary tab for more information on the development of the snowpack.

 

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