Avalanche forecast

Bitterroot

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Natural and human triggered wet snow avalanches will be possible at mid elevation today. If you find yourself sinking into wet or unsupportable snow, or able to push wet sloughs on test slopes and rollovers, you can avoid avalanches by staying off of and out from under mid elevation slopes over 30 degrees in slope angle.  

Triggering small wind slabs at upper elevation will be possible today, but these slabs will be small and unlikely to be large enough to bury a person. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Continued warming today, a poor refreeze overnight, and full cloud cover will continue to warm the snowpack today, possibly leading to a wet loose avalanche cycle. Surface snow consists of up to a foot of weak sugary near surface facets. These crystals can be especially susceptible to rapid warming or “greenhousing” from cloud cover. 

    If you find yourself moving through wet or unsupportable snow, or see small wet loose avalanches beginning to fan out and increase in size, expect a wet snow avalanche cycle and stay out of avalanche terrain. The timing of wet snow avalanches can be tricky when we are dealing with greenhousing from cloud cover versus wet snow from strong sunlight. Wet snow from the cloud cover will be possible first thing this morning so do not let your guard down as you approach your objective for the day. 

    At upper elevation this problem will transition into a dry loose problem with sloughing of the near surface facets. It is hard to put a definitive elevation line for this transition and it will likely vary across the mountain range by cloud cover, tree cover, terrain, and aspect. If you are pushing loose snow avalanches and they feel damp or dry, manage the problem through good slough management skills and skiing or riding one at at time. Recognize that as you descend the slope, these avalanches could move into wetter snow and transition to wet snow avalanches. 

    At low elevation, there is not enough snow to create D2 avalanches and danger is low.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Some snow is still available for transport at upper elevations, but with light winds today, minimal new windslab growth is expected. Older windslabs will become less reactive to the weight of skiers or riders and the chances of triggering will decrease today. 

    While these slabs are unlikely to bury you, they could take you for a ride that results in injury or broken equipment. Wind slabs are unlikely once you get off ridgelines or a mid and lower elevation. 

    Wind slabs can be identified from their smooth rounded appearance or shooting cracks. If you see these, avoid the problem through avoidance and stick to slopes less than 30 degrees. 

Avalanche Discussion

How warm will it get today? Right now we are looking at upper elevation temperatures to rise to the high 30s. Mid elevation temps will climb into the low 40s, but with full cloud cover and light wind could feel even warmer. Snow does not like rapid changes like warming and we expect today to become active with wet snow. 

While there is not enough new snow on top of the buried surface hoar to create a persistent slab problem, observations have shown that across all forecast zones, the surface hoar that formed during January is preserved and buried under 2-5 inches of snow. We will continue to monitor this layer as snow accumulates but as of now, we are expecting this layer to stick around and a tricky persistent slab problem to develop in the future. As you travel around the mountains, dig in the snow and keep track of where you are finding buried surface hoar. If we develop a slab on top of this, we will all need to change our mindset from low danger to conservative travel and more dangerous avalanche conditions. 

Glide cracks have opened up on isolated slopes throughout the region. Glide avalanches are highly unpredictable, and avoidance is the answer. If you see open glide cracks, do not travel underneath them. 

We received our vehicle support from the Forest Service this week and plan to begin fieldwork and forecasting for the Seeley lake area next week. If you are in the Seeley area Wednesday (February 4th), we will be doing an Avalanche Awareness class/ Meet the Forecasters hosted by Montana Scenic Trails. Reach out to Montana Scenic Trails for more information or to register. 

Avalanche education is a lifelong journey built on developing sound judgment, gaining experience, and applying repeatable decision-making systems in the backcountry. Our American Avalanche Association (A3) recognized Level 1, Rescue, and Level 2 courses are offered throughout the winter and help you travel smarter in avalanche terrain. Explore current courses and registration on the Education page. 

Please continue to submit observations and ski and ride safe!

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