Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Instabilities within the new storm snow could prove dangerous today. Human-triggered and natural avalanches are possible. Monitor for red flags of avalanche danger. Steep slopes and wind exposed areas warrant avoidance. Use thorough snowpack evaluation and conservative travel techniques. Seek simple and sheltered terrain to decrease your exposure.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The final wave in this week's storm parade will have the final say. With daytime snow totals expected to exceed single digits, both wind and storm slab instabilities will overlap. Larger and more consequential slabs of wind deposited snow will grow unstable first. These locations exist beneath ridgelines, on the sidewalls of gullies, and around rock outcroppings. Watch for continued snow transport and remain suspicious of slopes presenting rippled or textured surfaces that appear lens or dune shaped. Fresh wind lips and cornices both point towards slopes to avoid.

    Dial back your slope angles in terrain holding over 6 inches of fresh snow to manage the risk of storm slabs. Instabilities will be greatest during or directly after active snowfall. Which, in this case, peak storm will occur over the morning and midday hours. Gauge this problem by observing, feeling, and testing for cohesive snow and shooting cracks underfoot or machine on small test slopes.

    Intermittent weather and a graupel layer have developed interfaces within the recent storm snow which avalanches could fail on. Dig down and test these layers to gauge the snow’s reactivity. The weight of a triggered wind slab could release the surrounding storm snow and result in a much larger and consequential avalanche.    

    (1/20/2024)

    An example of a storm slab avalanche that may be encountered today, as snow accumulates below treeline

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

Avalanche Discussion

With multiple days of underwhelming weather and snowfall, today has the ingredients—subfreezing temperatures and favorable flow—to turn on the snowmaker! If conditions verify, today’s not the day to roll the dice in avalanche terrain. Stay tuned to changing weather and conditions and be prepared to self-assess avalanche hazard. Remember: Red Flags are Mother Nature’s neon warning signs indicating unsafe snow.

Riding conditions have been excellent. Don't fail to identify areas of high consequence, like terrain traps and micro and macro terrain features when traveling both uphill and down. Obscured visibility demands heightened situational awareness to avoid being funneled into hazardous terrain.

Recent observations found the new snow to be dense, creamy, and well bonded, with no immediate signs of instability. A brief look above treeline showed heavily wind-sculpted and plastered terrain (see photos).

Bunny Flat is a busy, multi-use trailhead. Please be respectful of ALL users. Motorized users, RVs, trucks with trailers/toy haulers: Please park below and downhill of the bathrooms and “Motorized Use” loading ramp signs. Loading and unloading at the ramp is permitted, but all vehicles and trailers must be moved and parked afterward. Motorized use is restricted to designated areas. Posted signage with QR codes provides maps of approved motorized zones. The Wilderness boundary is clearly signed. Citations are active. 

Regions covered