Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The Avalanche Hazard will remain at Moderate today for all elevations. It will be possible to trigger a hard slab avalanche 1-2+ feet deep in protected areas and slopes that have been loaded by the wind. In the afternoon, expect wet loose avalanches on south facing slopes. Use safe travel protocols in avalanche terrain and avoid steep south facing slopes in the afternoon.

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Special Announcment:

Join the Valdez Avalanche Center for its Annual Spring Fling Fundraiser at Growler Bay on March 28, 2026!

Enjoy a lively evening with friends, local food and drink, and our ever-popular silent auction—all in support of avalanche forecasting and education for Valdez, Thompson Pass, and the Copper River Basin. Come celebrate the season, bid on great items, and help keep our backcountry community informed and safe.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Multiple weak layers of snow exist throughout the upper portion of our snowpack. In many locations this weak snow is capped by stiff, wind hardened snow which is acting as a bridge over the weak layers below. This can make it very difficult to assess the danger as these weak layers are not likely to show signs of instability. The most likely place you may encounter unstable snow is in protected areas, lee slopes that have been loaded by recent wind, and in steep extreme terrain. The best way to mitigate this problem is to choose simple terrain, ride slopes one at a time, and space out when climbing on steeper slopes.

    Persistent slab triggered by a large group doing rope rescue practice.

    Photo: Paul Ramseth

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Even though cold temperatures are persisting, south facing slopes are heating up and wet loose avalanches have been observed in the afternoon during the heat of the day. There are many weak layers within our snowpack and these wet loose slides could stress layers deeper in the snowpack and create stepdown avalanches that are much larger and more dangerous. Watch for roller balls and moist snow surfaces as this is the first indication that a slope is heating up. Avoid this problem by staying off and away from south facing slopes in the afternoon.

    We saw our first cornice fall on Tuesday. This is an additional concern that comes with the warming temperatures. Limit time spent under cornices and steeper rocky terrain especially if it has been in the sun. Cornice and rockfall is a serious hazard in the springtime.

    (3/23/2026)

    Wet loose avalanche activity on South Hogsback that triggered a couple of small slabs towards the tail end of the debris

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    Weak snow near the ground is increasingly common as you move North through our forecast zones, with the Continental zone being the most concerning. Although it still remains unlikely to trigger this layer, areas that have been scoured from strong northeast winds now have a shallower snowpack, making this layer closer to the surface and potentially easier for a rider to trigger.

    This is a low-likelihood but high-consequence problem most likely to be triggered in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or scoured. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely at this time, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack could step down to the basal weak layer.  There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the poor structure at the base of the snowpack.  

    (2/25/2026)

    Deep slab natural avalanche on The Wall / north/~5800'.  Failed sometime in mid February

    Photo: Jed Workman

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  

3/25 A group of skiers remote triggered a D2 persistent, hard slab avalanche right off the road on the lower flanks of girls mountain.

Photo: Paul Ramseth

3/24-Natural Cornice failure on 40.5 Mile Peak that triggered a deep pocket of snow to fail at the ground in extreme terrain.  

Photo: Paul Ramseth

3/23- 2 Natural D2 wet loose avalanches on the south side of Hogsback ridge ~3500'.  One slide stepped down into two small slabs near the tail end of debris.

 

Forecast Discussion

Our current snowpack is much more reminiscent of what you might find in the middle of winter rather than late March for Thompson Pass. Cold temperatures along with a thin snowpack have allowed persistent weak layers to remain intact and faceting has been occurring through the entire snowpack. Over the last couple days we have seen a cornice trigger a deep slab avalanche and a group of skiers remote trigger a persistent, hard slab avalanche. With warming temperatures and an increase in users, expect avalanche activity to increase. The warming temperatures will be the first stress the snowpack will be under in a long time. The combination of a thin, weak snowpack and new stress from warming temps should be treated as a red flag.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.  

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