Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a surprising and dangerous slab avalanche remains a possibility, especially in terrain that has been wind affected. You can reduce your risk by choosing more sheltered terrain or smaller, simpler slopes. Also, keep tabs on how warm and weak the snow surface is, and don't linger under large, looming blocks of snow at ridgelines.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You can find buried weak layers 1-3 feet down that show some signs of healing, but we can't say for sure with much confidence, given the lack of data. Also, the warm up on Saturday could play a role in maintaining the possibility of triggering an avalanche. It's unlikely, but if water works its way down to buried weak layers, this could reinvigorate instability by the end of the day. Cornice fall could become an issue as things warm up, and a big trigger like this might be just what it takes to let loose a deadly avalanche. All in all, the most suspect place you'd still trigger a slide is in exposed wind-loaded terrain, and weak layers can be buried even deeper here, too. 

    This problem is tricky to manage in the backcountry. If you plan to travel near a neighboring forecast zone, consider reading that forecast as well to equip your toolbelt with more information. Either way, ease into terrain slowly and be thoughtful about the complexity and exposure of slopes you plan to ski or ride. You're unlikely to get clear feedback from the snowpack before triggering a large slide in consequential terrain. 

    (3/1/2026)

    Snow machine triggered large (D2) persistent slab and self extricated on 2/28. Darland Mt. NE aspect, 6700 ft.

    HS- AMu-R2-D2-O @ NE, 6700' Photo: Northwest Avalanche Center

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Despite freezing levels spiking past upper elevations on Saturday, we have some factors working in our favor to keep the likelihood of this problem from spiking in turn. Read on in the discussion if you're curious what those factors are. Most avalanches should be small, and you'll probably need a very steep slope for anything to really get moving. Nonetheless, if you're sinking past your boot tops into wet, mushy snow, steer around very steep terrain where you could be knocked off your feet and carried into terrain traps below. If curiosity strikes, you can dig in and see how far down the snow is getting wet within the snowpack. Buried weak layers getting wet are a red flag for a much larger, surprising slab avalanche. If you can easily make a snowball with a gloved hand or even squeeze water out, that snow is not dry. Rollerballs falling naturally or from your equipment, snow shedding from rocks and trees, and drooping cornices also indicate instability.

    (2/5/2026)

    Wet loose slides on a sun-exposed slope originating in steep, rocky terrain. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

If you're here for the wet loose factors, here you go. Fortunately or unfortunately, the snowpack is already moist in most terrain from the warm up already impacting the region. This will help keep things a little more glued together on Saturday. Areas immediately adjacent to the Cascade Crest will receive a tiny bit of rain, and likely not enough to increase instability. Areas further east will be much drier and sunnier, but these same areas haven't received recent snowfall, so the snow won't be as easily influenced. Lastly, there is a crust that formed recently, which, although not very refrozen on Saturday, will help keep size of avalanches small.

An NWAC forecaster traveled to the Pinegrass Ridge area on Wednesday and observed 1–2 inches of new snow and a thin, breakable crust on sun-exposed slopes. They identified the 2/13 buried surface hoar and 2/7 facet/crust complex about 2 feet below the surface that produced propagating test results on west aspects. On southerly aspects, they found these weak layers gaining strength. The last (and only) known persistent slab avalanches that failed in the East South occurred on February 28th around Darland Mountain. These avalanches broke up to two feet deep and failed on the 2/13 buried surface hoar. 

It is difficult to produce accurate avalanche forecasts without community support. Please let us know what you're seeing out there.

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