Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack is well adjusted to last week's storm cycle and high wind events.  Skiers or riders could still trigger a large persistent slab avalanche on steep slopes with a north facing tilt.  Avoid taking unnecessary risks by staying clear of steep starting zones on these aspects and only loading slopes with one individual at a time.

Bullet proof ice can still be found just under last week's storm snow on steep and wind blown slopes.  Use caution navigating the mountain, as this, and low snow obstacles continue to be hazards.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Multiple weak layers in the snowpack are present in specific terrain on northerly aspects of the forecast zone.  (View last Thursday's archived forecast for a discussion on the distribution and type of PWLs that have been identified in the last month).  The chance of triggering this type of avalanche is small, due to its more localized distribution and sensitivity, but these weak layers are buried deeper in the snowpack and avalanches of this type could easily be large enough to bury a skier or rider.  This is a classic low probability but high consequences scenario.

    The layer of greatest concern is from the January 9th storm.  This new snow quickly developed into diurnal recrystallization (recycled powder) facets.  It has been buried by the most recent storm cycle, and in specific locations is distributed widely enough that, if loaded or triggered, could result in a large avalanche.  

    Yesterday two of three pits dug on slopes ranging from 10,500 to 11,500 contained this January 9th facet layer.  In one location an ECT produced propagation at a high load.  In another location an entire football field sized treed slope collapsed.  Smaller collapses were heard throughout the day.  Test pits dug in other locations in the three days prior to yesterday showed minimal presence of these weak layers, but some north facing slopes in the forecast zone are still harboring this danger.  If you're venturing into new terrain, dig a quick pit, and do a round of stability tests before committing to a slope.

Avalanche Discussion

In general, backcountry conditions are much improved after last week's storm.  Today's primary issue will be rising temperatures and the return to spring-like weather, in accompaniment with a persistent slab problem on north to east facing slopes.  As the temperature rises, consider moving out of steep terrain.  There is a chance that slabs could soften causing a skier or rider to trigger weak layers in the snowpack.   Additionally, skiers or riders on steep sun exposed slopes could trigger a  wet loose avalanche causing falls in consequential areas.  If you see roller balls or start sinking into soft slushy snow choose another slope.

About the Persistent Slab Hazard:  The most recent storm's snow fell on a complex snowpack that included several potential persistent weak layers. Of these, the layer of greatest concern is a layer of 2-6 cms in size of near surface facets buried on top of the Holiday Ice Lense.  These facets are from the January 9th storm, and for a number of weeks they formed what's known as recycled powder and provided some of the only good skiing on the mountain.  Now that they've been buried by the Friday the 13th storm, and the January 16-20th storm, they've become a potential hazard.  The distribution of this layer is not widespread, but has been found on north to east facing slopes on top of the HIL.  The snow that formed this weak layer was highly distributed by wind, so it is more  consistent in BTL terrain.  Yesterday, this layer was found on north facing slopes near treeline (NTL).    Avoid unnecessary loading of slopes that contain this PWL by staying away from avalanche path starting zones, and choosing other terrain instead.

The most significant hazard in the backcountry remains the ice layer that is either exposed or hidden just below the surface of the snowpack.  Snow depth remains thin and variable after this storm cycle and in many locations high winds have ablated the new snow down to the Holiday Ice Lens.  This ice hasn't vanished and is still challenging to navigate on west facing wind scoured slopes, and on some wind exposed east facing slopes.  In some instances it's difficult to distinguish the ice lens from the surface textured wind blown snow.  The ice lens, in combination with various low snowpack trip hazards, such as rocks and logs, is keeping travel more risky.  It continues to be wise to ski with caution and practice conservative decision making and general skepticism.  If you're entering an unknown snowpack take the time to fully evaluate slopes and surface conditions.  If you don't know the snowpack structure, consider digging a quick pit and doing a round of stability tests before committing to a pre-determined plan.  Carrying some type of traction assistance, such as an ice axe, crampons or ski/board crampons is highly recommended.  Continue to be prepared for challenging travel conditions.

For more information on conditions check out the latest observations.  

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected].

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