Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

An Avalanche Watch is in effect. Avalanche danger will rise to High overnight as heavy snowfall and strong winds rapidly overload a shallow snowpack riddled with weak layers. Natural avalanche activity will begin today and increase in size and frequency through Wednesday. Large and dangerous avalanches will be easy to trigger on or adjacent to slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially on north and east aspects. Use the avalanche terrain map to plan routes that avoid start zones and runouts.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Slab avalanches breaking on buried weak layers will be easy to trigger and can run naturally under intense snowfall and severe windloading.  The north side of the compass has fragile, weak layers buried in the upper and lower snowpack (see video) and is most likely to produce remote triggers from flat terrain, widely propagating or destructive avalanches, and natural activity.  Southerly aspects have a more springlike snowpack structure which will reduce chances for avalanches breaking deeper and larger than the storm snow.  Manage today's persistent slab problem with conservative terrain choices.     

    A large natural avalanche on Schuylkill Ridge that ran during our last storm.  Expect many avalanches like this today, with slabs and debris piles growing larger through the day and overnight.  (2/12/2026) Photo: Miles Morris

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Intense snowfall rates and strong winds will create instabilities that break in the new snow, which grow in size throughout the day.  Storm slabs will be thicker and most reactive on wind-loaded slopes at higher elevations.  As the storm progresses, avalanches in the new snow will easily step down and produce deeper, larger avalanches on the north side of the compass - an unmanageable problem.  Wind-protected southerly aspects will host the smallest instabilities, which are easier to manage and assess in steeper terrain.  

    An example of a drifted slab of new snow from the archives.  Storm slabs could look like this on leeward terrain at higher elevations.

    Photo: Irwin Guides

Avalanche Discussion

Conditions change dramatically today and tomorrow as the Fat Tuesday Firehose delivers multiple feet of snow and strong winds to the Elk Mountains. Avalanche likelihood and destructive size will increase steadily over the next 36 hours.

This morning, danger begins at Considerable in both zones, with D1 to D2 avalanches likely. By Wednesday, all elevations are expected to reach High danger, with D2 to D3 avalanches very likely. The exact timing of that transition is uncertain, but each zone will cross that threshold within the next 24 hours as loading intensifies and persistent weak layers are stressed. Heaviest precipitation is expected in the Northwest Mountains, where thicker slabs are already in place; High danger looks to develop there today. The Southeast Mountains will likely follow overnight, or potentially sooner in some areas.

Our field video from Elk Creek yesterday outlines the setup ahead of what will likely be our largest loading event and avalanche cycle of the season so far. The north side of the compass is most dangerous: widespread weak layers near the ground and in the upper snowpack are capable of producing the largest, most destructive avalanches. Wind-sheltered or wind-eroded southerly aspects have safer options and fewer overhead hazards early in the storm. That margin may shrink as storm totals stack up deeper tomorrow.  

Regions covered