Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A storm bringing fresh snow could overload our weak snowpack, and avalanches could be very easy to trigger or break in surprising ways.  Whumphing collapses and long shooting cracks are red flags to avoid steep open slopes and convex terrain features. Avalanches will be larger where the wind drifts snow deeper, so with these dangerous conditions, seek out sheltered, low-angle terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With a fresh snow load, avalanches may fail on buried weak layers, even in sheltered terrain. On sheltered slopes, these avalanches may act more like your average storm slab. However, in wind-loaded areas, they may break widely across terrain features or be triggered remotely. You'll want to steer clear of steep lee slopes near ridgelines, where these avalanches are likely to be much larger.

    Long shooting cracks, whumping collapses, or natural avalanches are key indicators of dangerous avalanche conditions. Small, steep test slopes or convex features can help gauge the reactivity of the upper snowpack. But given snowpack variability, be cautious about extrapolating your results too broadly.  Instead, seek out low-angle terrain protected from the wind while the snowpack adjusts and we gain more information on how the buried persistent weak layers are handling the new load. 

    (2/18/2026)

    Skiers triggered this very shallow wind slab avalanche on the 18th, highlighting the sensitivity of buried weak layers in the upper snowpack.

    Silver Star Mtn, middle elevations, N-NE

    Photo: NCH

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Natural and human-triggered loose avalanches could be fast-running on an older melt-freeze crust on slopes near 40 degrees. While they may be small and predictable, they could push them into gullies, trees, or cliffs. If you observe long-running sluffs, practice good terrain management, stop out of the runouts in steep terrain, and use extra caution around consequential terrain. If the sun breaks out in the afternoon, we could see these loose slides run naturally and be more wet than dry on sunny slopes. 

    (2/7/2025)

    An example of natural loose dry avalanches from last season near Washington Pass.

    Photo: NCH

Avalanche Discussion

The most significant storm we've seen in a while arrives overnight. It's not exactly a powerful storm, only bringing 7-9" of new snow, but it still might be too much for our unusually weak snowpack.  On Saturday, there was a report of a widely propagating, but shallow wind slab avalanche. While we don't have much info on that incident, it could be one of the first warning signs of avalanches to come. There is uncertainty about the extent of avalanches on Monday and how many we'll see occur in sheltered terrain, but it's a setup that warrants an abundance of caution.

On all but southerly aspects, there's 8-12" of dry, weak snow over the upper crust (February 7th). The layer immediately above the crust is extra weak with larger faceted grains and surface hoar. The January 28th crust is thicker and now 12-16" below the surface.  On southerly aspects, there are more crusts and less dry, weak snow on the surface. Further west of Washington Pass, the crust may be thicker and deeper with more dry snow between them. Farther east, in places like the Chewuch and Twisp River drainages, the snowpack is shallower and weaker. Here, the crusts have become faceted on shady aspects, with the upper 2/7 crust barely discernible in some northerly terrain.

Regions covered