Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There is a lingering chance a person may trigger an avalanche on a weak layer of snow buried 2 to 4' deep. This layer may or may not give clear warning signs even though it exists across a large portion of terrain above 2500'. The best way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling in high-consequence terrain for now.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCMENTS:

We are excited to roll out some changes to our Chugach State Park forecast product beginning this weekend. We will begin issuing a full avalanche forecast with a danger rating, avalanche problems, and a 24-hour outlook on Saturday mornings at 7 am.  We'll continue issuing a forecast one day per week (Saturday mornings) through the end of the season. We will test this for the remainder of the season and reassess in the spring. Thanks for bearing with us as we take this next step to continue to grow the program! 

Free Forecaster Chat at the Breeze Inn in Seward, March 5! Grab some food and drink at 6pm on March 5 and join CNFAC forecaster Mik Dalpes to discuss the ‘state of the snowpack’, learn about resources on the CNFAC website, discuss tips for managing persistent slab problems, and bring your hard question for a Q & A.  The Mt. Alice room is located just off the lobby of The Breeze Inn Hotel located at 303 North Harbor Dr. right off 3rd Ave in Seward.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: Several wind slab avalanches occurred during last week's outflow wind event.  

    The weak layer of faceted snow that formed back in December is still our main avalanche concern in the Summit Lake area. This layer has become stubborn over the past week, but we are still seeing warning signs like collapses and poor test results in the field. That is clear feedback indicating an unstable snowpack, and that means we can still trigger large avalanches in this area.

    Problems like these are difficult to predict and do not always give clear warning signs, even when conditions are dangerous. As a result, the best way to manage terrain is to set aside complex terrain and bigger objectives for now. That's not to say all avalanche terrain is necessarily off-limits; but it would be wise to avoid slopes with terrain traps that increase the consequences of triggering an avalanche. These include features like trees, rocks, or cliffs, as well as gullies, creeks, or depressions that collect avalanche debris in deeper piles. It also includes large, well-connected start zones that could produce larger avalanches. Given how challenging this problem is to assess, it is best to avoid all of those terrain features for now.

Regions covered