Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

With temperatures cooling off and northwest winds increasing there are two main concerns today. There is still a small chance a person could find a thin spot and trigger a very large avalanche on weak snow buried up to 6' deep above 2,500'. This problem is the most unlikely of the 2, but has the most serious consequences. The incoming wind could build some new wind slabs up to 1' deep in the upper elevations, but there isn't a lot of soft snow left to move around. Choose slopes with a clear runout and travel one at a time in steep terrain to reduce risk or choose low angle slopes to avoid these problems entirely.

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We learned of another fatal avalanche accident that occurred in Montana on Sunday. Last week there was an accident involving a large group outside of Lake Tahoe, and two fatal accidents in Utah. Our thoughts are with the victims, their friends and families, and all of the responders involved. Preliminary information may be found at mtavalanche.com, sierraavalanchecenter.org and utahavalanchecenter.org.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: On Friday, a small wind slab was triggered by a snowmachiner at 2,500' on a southeast facing slope in the Snug area. Natural avalanches probably occurred during the wind event, but we haven't been there or received reports.

    It has been almost 3 weeks since a large avalanche has occurred on the weak snow that formed in Decemberin the Seward area. There are a few reasons why this is still our main concern despite the lack of avalanches and low likelihood. 

    • Poor structure still exists in thin spots in the snowpack. A large slab is sitting on very weak snow in places. This layer has gained strength over time, but these types of layers are very hard to fully trust and the consequences could be devestating if the unlikely avalanche occurs.
    • The large avalanches on the north side of the Girdwood area tell us that large avalanches could still occur in the right thin spot with the right load. That side of the Girdwood valley has a different snowpack than the south side of the valley and Seward, but we think there are thin spots in Seward in the upper elevations in wind scoured places that have similar structure to where those avalanches occurred.

    We think it is unlikely that a person could trigger one of these avalanches, but there is always some uncertainty with this type of problem. Some things you can do to reduce your exposure and vulnerability include checking safety gear at the parking lot, choosing safe, low angle up routes, avoid riding close to rocks, and travel one at a time in steep terrain while watching partners closely.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Ridgetop winds are forecast to be in the 20 mph range today from the northwest. With two strong wind events last week there isn't a lot of soft snow in the upper elevations to move around. This problem today is going to be slope specific. Watch for blowing snow to know where it exists and avoid those places. The typical places include just under ridgelines, cross-loaded gullies, and steep rolls. A shooting crack or whumpf are red flags that indicate that slope is ready to avalanche. Even a small wind slab could be consequential if there are trees or cliffs below.

    (2/23/2026)

    Aftermath of last weeks north wind events on Mt. Marathon in Seward

    Photo: Mik Dalpes

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