Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger is generally low, except in wind-exposed terrain. Steer around steep slopes holding wind-drifted snow. Crusty snow surfaces and thin snowpacks could make travel challenging and increase the consequences of a slip or fall.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Shallow new slabs may form where a few inches of new snow are drifted by moderate winds. Older slabs from the last storm are trending unreactive, but could still pose a hazard on very steep, unsupported slopes such as convex rolls, and on slopes above or adjacent to cliffs and rocky features. Wind slabs are more likely to be triggered where they formed over slick crusts.

    Pay attention to changes in new snow depth and slab stiffness as you gain elevation and change aspects. Active blowing and drifting snow will help identify which slopes are currently loading. Cornices, wind lips, and scoured slopes can help you identify wind-loaded terrain if the wind stops blowing. Test small wind-drifted features to assess reactivity before committing to steep, high-consequence terrain. 

     

    Small wind loaded features at ridgeline can serve as test slopes to gauge wind slab bonding.

Avalanche Discussion

Observers in the Baker Backcountry reported 2–4 inches of new snow at 5000 feet, increasing to around 12 inches of four-finger dry snow in wind-exposed terrain at 5500 feet. A rime or melt-freeze crust was found at the snow surface. Steep southerly slopes at mid elevations produced rollerballs under direct sun, but no wet avalanches were observed. Breakable surface crust was found at Artist Point (5100 feet) and below. Travel conditions are likely just as big or even a bigger danger than avalanches.

Monday should be a benign day in the mountains, both weather- and avalanche-wise. That said, if actual snowfall amounts and wind speeds come in slightly higher than forecast, wind slab danger could shift from trivial to legitimate in short order.

The most interesting aspect of the last storm was the variation in precipitation, temperature, and snowfall across the zone. Heather Meadows and Elbow Lake picked up around two inches of precipitation, while many other stations saw only half to a quarter of that. Heather Meadows (4210 feet) received about two inches of new snow. Farther east and colder sites, such as Park Creek Ridge (4610 feet), recorded less precipitation—around 0.75 inches—but more new snow than warmer sites farther west.

Elevation also played a role. The Brown Top SNOTEL near the Canadian border (5840 feet) has a base depth well over 100 inches and picked up about five inches of new snow in the last storm, despite typically being drier. While these are more nuanced forecasting factors, they highlight the temperature and precipitation patterns that have defined this winter.

Regions covered