Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

Although the likelihood is decreasing, the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, you can trigger deep and dangerous avalanches from 2-4 feet deep failing on buried weak layers of faceted snow. In some cases, these un-survivable avalanches could fail at the ground taking out the entire season's snowpack. A MODERATE danger for this type of avalanche exists on W and E aspects near and above treeline, and on lower elevation northerly aspects. Avoidance of slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas is the only real safe strategy. A strong sun and very warm temperatures again today will create a MODERATE danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. The danger follows the sun with east facing slopes affected first and westerly aspects getting hit later in the day. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Natural avalanche activity and collapsing of the snowpack are clear indicators that our persistent weak layer remains a serious problem to contend with. The snowpack structure is poor with a dense hard slab 2-3 feet thick on top of multiple layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Stability tests remain reactive but stubborn, and collapsing isn't widespread, but this just means you don't know if and when a particular slope is going to release. It could occur after multiple laps, and any avalanche triggered would be deep, dangerous, and likely un-survivable. The danger is greatest on steep northerly aspects near treeline where strong southwest winds have deposited thick slabs on top of these weak layers and this type of terrain should be avoided. West and east aspects near and above treeline, and northerly aspects below also remain suspect with equally poor structure. The main difference is a lack of recent wind loading. In these areas, deep, human triggered avalanches remain possible.

    Brian Sparks dug down in the snow over near South Mountain yesterday. See his thoughts on the persistent weak layer problem here.

    Dave and I dug into the snow on a NE aspect around 11,000' on Friday where we got a stubborn, but classic "cash register" release on depth hoar at the base of the snowpack.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    A strong sun and very warm temperatures today will bring on a rising danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. The danger follows the sun with east facing slopes affected first and westerly aspects getting hit later in the day. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow up around your boot tops. Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.

Special Announcement

We come to you with heavy hearts and great sadness this morning to confirm an avalanche accident on Friday, March 7th near Hoyt Peak, involving 51 year old Micheal Janulaitis from Marion, Utah. Micheal used a snowbike to access the terrain, but was caught, carried, and killed in an avalanche while skiing a steep, northeast facing run on Hoyt Peak.

Huge thanks to the Department of Public Safety, Park City Mountain Resort and Canyons Village Snow Safety and Ski Patrol teams, along with Wasatch Backcountry Rescue for the hard work recovering Micheal and returning him to his family. Micheal was a friend of Utah Avy and we feel privileged for the time we got to spend together. This is a tremendous loss for our backcountry family and we will miss him deeply. We are compiling accident details and a preliminary report is available here.

March kicks off our Spring Campaign! If everyone in Utah’s backcountry community donates the cost of something they regularly enjoy on an adventure—like a dawn patrol burrito, a backpack snack, or post-ride trailhead drinks—we could fund not just one but two forecasters for the entire season! Donate here. Thank you!

The Utah Avalanche Center is excited to host Mountainfilm on Tour in Moab at Star Hall on 3/21 and 3/22. Click here for tickets and information.

Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and is mostly down to the dirt.

Grooming Conditions: The Gold Basin trail was last groomed on Friday.

Recent Activity

A handful of recent natural avalanches were reported over the weekend including this large slide in Horse Creek reported by Travis Nauman, with an aerial photo below courtesy of Chris Benson. This avalanche is noteworthy as it occurred on bullseye, near treeline terrain where the persistent weak layer is most consistently widespread with a well connected slab over it. Dave went up for a closer look yesterday and confirmed that it failed on depth hoar at the ground taking out the entire season's snowpack.

See the complete avalanche database here.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 15" Season Total Snow: 97" Depth at Gold Basin: 44"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 25° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 87%

Weather

Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake are down as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.

It will be another sunny and warm day in the mountains with light to moderate southwest winds and high temperatures near 40°F at 10,000'. A weak system slides by to the south on Tuesday bringing us little more than an increase in southwest winds. Temperatures remain warm through Wednesday with another good looking storm shaping up Thursday-Friday.

General Conditions

Wind, sun, and warm temperatures have taken a toll on the snow surface in exposed locations but soft powder snow can still be found on sheltered, shady aspects (see recent observations from Ryan Huels and Dave Garcia). The mountains received up to two feet of snow last week with 15-18 inches falling Thursday and Friday. The recent snowload has brought fresh life to our persistent weak layer problem and a handful of natural avalanches were observed over the weekend including a very wide, full depth release in Horse Creek. Collapsing and whumphing are still being observed and although not widespread, it is sometimes occurring after multiple trips up the same skin track (see Nate Ament observation). This is a very scary situation, and a clear sign that the snowpack is not to be trusted.

Dave Garcia was up yesterday and offered this take on the snowpack:

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."

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General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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