Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The warmest weather of the season creates wet avalanche problems on many steep slopes.  Loose avalanches can be triggered around the compass and at upper elevations.  Slab avalanche problems escalate on the north half of the compass as meltwater drains into the snowpack.  There is a chance for an unpredictable, large, dangerous wet slab to fail on north-facing slopes.  Cornice fall could release large slabs during the heat of the day.  Avalanche problems are less severe and more predictable on the south half of the compass, as the main problem will be loose avalanches.  You can reduce risk by avoiding wet, north-facing terrain and limiting your time beneath cornices. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Two consecutive nights with little to no freeze coupled with the warmest temperatures of the season escalate loose avalanche problems.  Many loose avalanches remain small, but the warm weather may allow a few avalanches to gouge deeply into the wet snowpack.  Long, steep terrain could grow larger.  Rollerballs, pinwheels, and ankle-deep wet snow indicate decreasing stability.  Move to less consequential terrain as the problem develops.  You can avoid loose avalanches by traveling very early while snow surfaces are frozen and keeping slope angles around 35 degrees or less.

    The loose avalanches on the left ran early this week, and the one highlighted by the black arrow likely ran on Friday.  Expect loose avalanches to potentially increase in size on Saturday.

    (4/11/2025) Photo: Eric Murrow

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Increasingly warm weather and a poor-to-nonexistent overnight refreeze will allow meltwater to drain into the snowpack.  Meltwater may flood buried weak layers/interfaces and destabilize the snowpack.  The most probable place for a wet slab is on the north half of the compass, where winter-like weak layers have yet to transition to a more springlike structure.  Avalanches could fail on the April Fool's crust a foot or two deep or on basal weak layers from early in the season.  Wet Slabs are notoriously hard to predict and pose a deadly threat.  Avoiding steep, northerly-facing terrain this weekend is a simple way to manage an unpredictable problem.  Wet Slab concerns will decrease once cooler weather arrives.

    A Wet Slab avalanche from previous warm weather in late March.  Rocky areas like this often produce more meltwater and increase the chances of a Wet Slab avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Snowfall from a week ago formed slabs about 1 to 2 feet thick, especially on terrain features favored by westerly winds.  These slabs have bonded well in most terrain, with a few potential exceptions where they formed over a faceted crust.  This buried weak layer is variable across the landscape.  Carefully assess slab size, bonding, and terrain consequences before riding on suspect terrain highlighted by the rose.  As temperatures rise and meltwater infiltrates the snowpack, this problem may shift to a Wet Slab issue on some slopes.

    There's a rare chance you can still trigger a deep persistent slab on high, northerly aspects where the snowpack remains winter-like. The terrain, where the snowpack is unusually shallow due to wind effects or previous avalanche activity, is most concerning.  Choose deeper, more uniform snowpacks over thin, rocky areas to reduce your risk.   

    This persistent slab was triggered by a shallow wet loose avalanche on Teocalli Mountain (4/7/2025).  

Avalanche Discussion

Saturday brings an apex to the current warming trend and bumps the avalanche hazard upward, but given the size and likelihood of the problems, the avalanche danger remains MODERATE.  The poor refreeze overnight may leave only a small window of reasonable travel today.

Loose avalanches are the simplest problem to manage today.  The terrain on the south half of the compass has experienced multiple warm-ups this spring, and meltwater has drained through the entire snowpack on nearly all slopes.  This greatly reduces the chances of Wet Slab activity and makes loose avalanches the main problem to manage.  Loose avalanches become less likely if you keep slope angles around 35 degrees or less.   

As you transition to the north side of the compass, and possibly above treeline east slopes, Wet Slab avalanches become the greatest risk.  After two nights with a poor refreeze, the likelihood of Wet Slab avalanches increases.  Wet Slabs could fail on weak layers in the upper snowpack or deeply near the ground on weak layers that formed early in the season.  The best management strategy is avoidance until colder temperatures arrive and meltwater production ceases.  Although the likelihood of Wet Slabs is hard to predict, the consequences are NOT.  Wet Slabs can be dangerous and potentially reach a destructive size.

Late Thursday, a large avalanche failed on Mount Owen's east-facing slope.  A cornice fall likely triggered the avalanche, but it could have been a Wet Slab.  Similar avalanches could happen today as cornices warm, and the resulting avalanches could be larger than expected.  Give a lot of space to steep slopes with large, sagging cornices.

Cooler weather arrives on Sunday, but temperatures remain above normal, so there is uncertainty about wet avalanche issues on Sunday.  Either way, plan an early start on Sunday, or you could wait for winter-like weather to return next week. 

Regions covered