Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist today as you can find wind slabs 1-2 feet deep near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features.  These slabs may appear pillow-like or smooth and rounded, and they will feel stiffer underfoot.  1 to 4 feet down, facets and depth hoar linger, and it's possible to trigger a large persistent slab avalanche.  These avalanches would be larger and potentially unsurvivable, taking with them most of the season's snowpack.  Watch for shooting cracks and collapsing, as these are signs of unstable snow.  You can find safer slopes in wind sheltered areas that are less than 30 degrees today and don't have steep slopes above.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    1 to 2 foot wind slabs can be found near and above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features.  Some of these slabs may be buried under a few inches of fresh snow that fell over the last 24 hours and others will extend all the way to the surface.  Look for stiffening snow underfoot and cracking on the surface, and avoid obvious pillow like features.  These wind slabs may look smooth and rounded and will be forming on slick smooth crusts or near surface facets that will enable them to be reactive to your skis, boards, or boots.  Triggering a wind slab avalanche could be dangerous on its own but it could also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger, more destructive avalanche.

    Strong W/SW winds on Friday were transporting snow on to North and East aspects at upper elevations. Winds picked up again last night and are strong enough are transporting the low-density snow that fell yesterday and overnight.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison 3/14

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Depth hoar and faceted crusts sit 1 to 4 feet below the surface and continue to remain very weak and easy to impact.  Recent snow and wind have loaded slopes and continued to stress these persistent weak layers. The most dangerous slopes will face the northern side of the compass, but you can also find this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak on some east and west aspects.  Obvious signs of instability like cracking and loud audible collapses may not be present and give you a false sense of security to push onto steeper slopes. 

    Avalanches will grow in size on northerly aspects at upper elevations where overlying slabs are deeper and harder, and it may take you hitting a sweet spot on the margins of the slab where weak layers are easier to impact. These avalanches have the potential to take with them most of the season's snowpack and would be large enough to bury or injure you. 

    A large natural persistent slab avalanche on a NE aspect that broke mid-path during Friday's storm.

    Photo: 3/14 Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

Today is shaping up to be a pristine March powder day with clearing weather and an additional 3-5 inches of low density snow blanketing the mountains.  If you've been skiing inbounds or in the backcountry lately, you've probably noticed that travel conditions are starting to improve and it's easier to get around above 10,500 feet without hitting as many ground hazards.  These successive March storms have done a lot for us after some genuinely hot weather to end February, and it'll be a great morning to go chase the fresh powder, but you'll need to keep your avalanche brain fully on as we have weak layers in mid-winter form.  It's best to avoid large slopes steeper than 30 degrees today as we've had a little over 1" of SWE fall in the last two days with periods of stronger winds.  This wintery weather has built and sustained fresh wind slabs that you'll want to avoid today, but the spookier result is the fact that this new snow and wind is overstressing our persistent weak layers: huge depth hoar and faceted crusts that awaiting a trigger on many slopes of interest.

The winds were the strongest at the outset of Friday's storm and continued throughout Friday before dying down on Saturday.  A few more inches fell throughout the day yesterday and into the evening hours, and then the winds picked up to moderate again with a slight shift to the W/NW early this morning.  The take-away here is that we've got wind slabs up to 1 or 2 feet deep on various leeward or cross-loaded slopes in our near and above treeline terrain.  In some cases these slabs will be sitting underneath a few inches of fluff that fell yesterday, while in other spots they will be stiff and well-formed all the way to the surface.  In either case, it is your job to identify these wind slabs and approach them with caution as they are resting on top of weak and/or slick surfaces such as near suface facets and crusts.  Round, pillow-esque drifts should be easy to indentify, even with a few inches on top of them.  You'll also notice a stiffening feeling underfoot if you're suddenly walking onto a wind slab, and you may get some cracking shooting out from your boards or boots.  Keep in mind that these smaller wind slabs are coinhabiting slopes with our persistent weak layers, so there is a good chance that triggering a wind slab avalanche will step down and lead to a more dangerous persistent slab avalanche.  

Visibility hasn't been great over the past two days, but we did observe some natural avalanches on Friday during the storm, with one being a large persistent slab avalanche on NE aspect near treeline. This avalanche broke about 300' across terrain features and appeared to be close to 4 feet deep.  It's hard to say whether a smaller avalanche up top started it before it stepped down or, with such strong winds, mid-path loading was the cause, but the message is clear.  The last two days of snowfall and wind are stressing a predominantly shallow and weak, faceted snowpack.  Whether it's a faceted crust or well-developed depth hoar, persistent weak layers are widespread in our snowpack right now.  Since March 3rd, we have doubled the amount of total SWE that we've received since the end of January,  and these March storms are continuing to build out cohesive slabs on top of these widespread weak layers.  It's probably more tempting than it's been all season to get out and ride a big, steep slope today with clear weather and a few inches of fresh powder on the surface, but our snowpack is as weak as we've ever seen it and really isn't worth messing with.  Persistent slab avalanches have occurred with every significant round of snow or wind that we've had since the long December/January drought, and this most recent storm is no exception.  Do yourself a favor and stick to simple terrain on shady, lower angle slopes today, where there is solid skiing and riding to be found.

As the weather heats up and the intense New Mexico sun makes a big return today, keep an eye out for wet snow instabilities near the surface as the day progresses.  This won't be a huge issue if you're heading out and exiting early, but definitely watch for roller balls and pinwheels forming in the new snow this afternoon on solar aspects as the low density snow starts to take heat.  Globstopper wax is a good idea to have in your kit today if you plan to put in a big day, and will help you with transitions from warm, wet snow to cold, dry snow.  Have an excellent, safe day in the backcountry and keep it simple: now is really not the time to be riding big terrain, so remain conservative with your terrain selection and enjoy the creative process that can result.  Many of the best available turns are in obvious avalanche terrain that in my mind really isn't worth the consequences, so you'll have to think outside the box a little bit to find good, safe turns.  Think: smaller terrain features, shorter panels of open trees, scenic walks on ridgelines.  Today is an excellent day for those kinds of adventures.

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