Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

We will see little change in the avalanche danger as we move from Tuesday into Wednesday.  Avalanches will remain possible on North and East slopes that the wind has blown new snow onto.  If you are choosing to ride near treeline, assess the depth and stability of recently wind blown snow before committing to steep North or East slopes.  At high elevations these direct action Wind Slab avalanches could trigger deeper weak layers and the resulting avalanche would be very large.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On Monday afternoon I observed Strong wind speeds and Intense blowing snow.  On Tuesday morning, the wind speed on top of Tumalo was Light and I observed Light blowing snow.  Currently there is ample snow available for transport, and new snow will be arriving Tuesday afternoon.  Where am I going with all this?  On Wednesday, the name of the game will be assessment if you are considering riding steep lee slopes.  There could be considerable variation by elevation.  Pole probing is a great way to measure the depth of new snow on potentially wind loaded slopes, and then deeply dug hand shears and ski cuts can give you some indication of stability.  The Wind Slab hazard will increase late in the day with the new snow and increasing winds.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    After a very large avalanche last week, we have been including Deep Persistent Slab on our problem list.  Last week's avalanche was triggered by explosive and the resulting Wind Slab avalanche.  It is unlikely that backcountry travelers will encounter this problem.  Triggering a large Wind Slab on a steep alpine slope may provide enough force to do so.  I haven't been finding much in my investigation of these deep weak layers, but I have been taking recent history into consideration when choosing where to ride.  My intuition is that this avalanche character will disappear from our problem list when more concerning avalanche characters appear with the approaching storm, and once the avalanche danger subsides after the storm it will hopefully be a thing of the past.  No promises though.

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