Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Highlights

An increase in ridgetop winds today could form wind slabs in the higher elevations. These would likely be in the 6 to 12" range and could be easy to trigger. Watch for winds actively drifting snow into fresh slabs. Glide cracks are still opening up in places and worth continuing to look for and limit time underneath.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    After a quiet weekend weather-wise, clouds and wind are moving in today. Ridgetop winds should bump up to 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 from a generally east direction. Since there is plenty of loose snow on the surface, this should be enough wind to move snow into shallow wind slabs in the upper elevations. Hence, new wind slabs will be the main avalanche concern.

    For anyone headed out today, keep a lookout for where the winds are drifting snow. New slabs could form quickly and sit on loose faceted snow and/or surface hoar, which will make them easier to trigger. These slabs should be on the shallower side, 6 to 12" or so. Aside from active wind loading, other clues you've found a wind slab are stiffer snow over softer snow and cracks that shoot out from you. 

    Persistent Slabs: Turnagain saw quite a bit of traffic over the weekend and from what we know, no avalanches were triggered. This along with various snowpit results gives us some confidence that triggering a larger slab up to 2' deep on buried surface hoar is unlikely. That said, we can't totally rule out a surprise avalanche somewhere. This layer was buried just over 2 weeks ago by the Holiday storm cycle and seems to only exist in isolated pockets in the higher elevations, above 3,000', If headed into steep terrain in less trafficked areas, it'd be wise to have this on your radar. Paying attention to any whumpfing or unstable snowpit results will be your best clues. 

    Dry Loose Avalanches: Sluffing in steep terrain should be expected due to the loose surface snow. In the mid elevations, sluffs can run further due to a crust under the loose snow. 

    Cornice Fall: Although cornices are big and many people were out along ridges last weekend, we did not hear of any cornice falls. One person did find a cornice crevasse (an opening crack where the cornice peels away from the underlying ridge). It's always good to give cornices a wide berth as they can break off further back than we might think. 

    (12/29/2024)

    All the rime on the Seattle Ridge weather station was cleared off yesterday. This is just in time to record the bump in winds for today and Tuesday!

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Even though we have not seen any glide avalanches recently there are some cracks that are still on the move and opening up. One of these is pictured here from the south face of Cornbiscuit and another is near the bottom of Todd's Bowl. I'm sure there are others as well. Because these are notoriously hard to predict, it is a good idea to limit any time under glide cracks.

    (12/28/2024) Recent glide crack movement on the south face of Cornbiscuit.

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