Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Glide avalanches are the biggest concern today in the Turnagain Pass zone. The brief break in the weather is not expected to do much to change the alarming rate of glide avalanche activity we've seen, especially this week. These avalanches are very dangerous and unpredictable. The only way to manage the problem is to avoid spending time below open glide cracks. This is becoming more and more difficult, and requires getting a good look at overhead terrain before traveling under steep slopes. If you manage to find cold snow in the alpine, there is also a chance you might be able to trigger wind slab avalanches, especially in steep gullies, below ridgelines, or on convex rolls.

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Special Announcements

Looking to dust off your rescue skills? Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center is hosting a free avalanche rescue workshop next Saturday, December 14 at the Hatcher Pass – Fishhook (Marmot) Lot. Visit hpavalanche.org for more info.

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The one-day lull in the weather is unlikely to have a major influence on the recent onslaught of glide avalanche activity. While it is true these avalanches are very difficult to predict, we should take all of the recent glide avalanches as a clear sign that conditions are ripe for more activity. Pay close attention to overhead terrain, and avoid spending any time below open glide cracks. These have been very large, and would be very hard to survive getting caught in.

    Turnagain Pass seems to be at the epicenter of recent glide avalanche activity. Although it has become a serious challenge to keep track of exact timing of these avalanches, we have seen dozens of them release over the past week. Some of these have been in high-traffic areas like the two avalanches on the west faces of Sunburst and Magnum, or the three avalanches this week above the common uptrack for Seattle Ridge.  Hopefully at some point all of this activity slows down, but for now it seems we are in the thick of it.

    (12/06/2024)

    Fresh glide crack right next to the usual skin track on Tincan Ridge. You know it's bad when we start seeing glide cracks opening up on Hamburger Hill.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We finally saw the rain line retreat back downhill as the storm finished last night. We likely received somewhere around 3 to 6" new snow at upper elevations, which will be enough to be blown into reactive wind slabs as the storm tapers this morning. If you are trying to find good snow in the alpine (I really do think it exists), pay very close attention to slopes that have been recently wind loaded. This might be as subtle as a transition from soft snow to stiff snow, or you may see shooting cracks or feel the snowpack collapse. Any of these are clear signs of unstable snow. The most likely place you will find this problem will be on steep slopes below ridgelines, in loaded gullies, or below convex rolls.

    Loose Wet Avalanches: It is likely that we will see crusts forming at the surface at elevations that have received rain this week. Whether that has already happened or if it won't happen until tonight is a question that remains unanswered. If you are sinking up to your boot tops in mushy snow, assume that it is still very likely you will be able to trigger wet loose avalanches in steep terrain. These may have more severe consequences if they carry you through trees, rocks, or into gullies or creeks.

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