Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Northerly winds were strong enough to continue transporting snow at upper elevations yesterday and they produced a few small wind slabs that ran naturally during the day. You will need to stay observant for the lingering threat of human triggering a wind slab today. Then as temperatures warm through the day, loose wet avalanches will also make the problem list. Persistent slab avalanches that release deeply in the snowpack continue to be a lower probability, but high consequence avalanche problem. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    On Thursday, northerly winds were just strong enough to transport snow at upper elevation and produce a few natural wind slabs that were small in size. Over the last several days the wind has blown from a variety of directions leading to a wide variation in the wind loading pattern. In general, these slabs are not expected to be very reactive and will be stubborn to human triggering. However, warming temperatures today may create a window where these slabs soften and temperately become more reactive to triggering. New to managing wind slabs? Then click the link for more detailed information about this avalanche problem. 

    A small wind slab that ran in Red Lady Bowl on Thursday. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Several large avalanches last week broke on faceted weak layers in the lower snowpack (Hunter Hill, Snowmass).  Recent persistent slab activity has been rare and most problematic on wind-drifted slopes at higher elevations.  Be cautious of similar terrain where wind drifting has formed dense slabs of varying thicknesses.  

    A large persistent slab that was human triggered on Thursday 2/9 in upper Hunter Creek.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Warming temperatures will slowly increase the possibility for small loose wet avalanches to release. Fresh roller balls and a couple of inches of wet snow on the snow surfaces will help you recognize the development of this avalanche problem. In most terrain, these loose wet avalanches should be fairly easy to manage and recognize. In isolated areas, a triggered loose wet avalanche could further pry out an old storm slab or wind slab, and become larger than expected. Wind-affected snow at above treeline elevations will limit but not completely eliminate the threat of this avalanche problem. 

    An example of wet loose avalanches and roller balls releasing form steep rocky terrain. 

Avalanche Discussion

1 to 2 feet of snow accumulated across the forecast area earlier this week, while the wind has blown from nearly all directions around the compass over the past week. The threat of human triggering a slab avalanche in this recent snow has been decreasing. The warming temperatures today will give one last test. Rapid settlement in the upper snowpack could temperately make this avalanche problem more reactive. Or a loose wet avalanche could pry out a stubborn slab in that snow that accumulated earlier this week. That 1 to 2 feet of snow also accumulated on a few potential persistent weak layers. This observation has a good summary of those potential weak layers. In recent days the forecast team has targeted this interface and we have yet to find an area where it is problematic. However, we still need to get through a warmup and see how things shake out. The snowpack never likes rapid changes. High temperatures are going to increase some 15 to 30 degrees over yesterday's high temperatures and that is a notable change to be aware of. 

After today's warmup, if we don't see any surprises then the NW Mountain forecast area is expected to go to a LOW avalanche danger rating on Saturday. The SE Mountain forecast area will stay at a MODERATE danger rating as persistent slab avalanche concerns continue to drive the avalanche danger rating in that area. The SE Mountain forecast area is getting close to a lower avalanche danger rating, but we need to give previously wind-loaded slopes a little more time to adjust. 

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