Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Heavy snow and strong winds forecasted today will create dangerous avalanche conditions at elevations above 4000'.   Avalanche problems above 4000' will consist of surface instabilities with storm snow and windslabs developing on all aspects.  These problems are combined today as a storm slab problem.  Existing weak layers may  be stressed with the additional snow load.  Snow totals remain uncertain ahead of the arctic cold front but,  new snow is predicted to fall in higher terrain today.  Tread lightly if you step out into the backcountry today and pay attention to changing conditions as you move through terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions on all aspects above 4000'.  In terrain steeper than 35 degrees expect sluffing to be certain and slab avalanches likely near wind affected terrain.  Winds started on Monday from the southwest and will steadily shift clockwise around the compass to come from northeast behind an arctic front approaching today.  Moderate wind with strong gusts are forecasted for upper elevations, and are likely to form slabs on most aspects including terrain that is usually sheltered from the wind.  New snow may produce larger than expected avalanches today. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Facets above the January 13th rain crust are still showing signs of weakness at upper elevations on aspects holding a thinner snowpack.  Hard force results speak to the stubborness of this layer but the weight of new snow may increase the likelihood of triggering a large avalanche on this layer.  In most locations it is buried close to 2 feet below the surface and will have enough volume to kill or injure a person caught in an avalanche triggered on this layer.  Avoid large open slopes, thin or rocky slopes,  and large avalanche paths to minimize your exposure to this problem.

Avalanche Discussion

On Monday we travelled to the West Cabinets to welcome in the  much anticipated winter storm.  We were greeted with moderate wind blowing out of the southwest and then shifting to northwest by the afternoon.  Snow was actively transporting to easterly aspects throughout the day.  While snow totals for the day did not meet expectations, there were periods of heavy snowfall.  Snow continued overnight and we are currently sitting on enough snow to cause avalanche problems today. 

Yesterday stability tests revealed a mostly stable snow pack, however they did produce hard force propagation two feet below the surface on facets above the 1/13 rain crust.  While this layer is currently difficult to trigger the weight of new snow may tip the scales in the wrong location.  Avoid unsupported, open terrain, or areas where the snow pack is thin while the snow adjusts to the new load.

Another bout of snow today, along with strong wind at upper elevations, will create reactive snow on all aspects at treeline and above.  While generally challenging,  travel through the mountains in these conditions warrants additional caution, and avoidance of avalanche terrain is recommended until the new snow has time to settle and bond to the surface.   If you venture out today manage terrain conservatively.

 Looking ahead, cold temperatures and northeast winds are forecasted to arrive this afternoon and persist through Friday.  Be prepared for these conditions if  you venture out.  A small incident can be magnified in severity in a short time frame due to cold exposure.  

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