Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is moderate for all aspects and elevations. Expect the current heat wave to destabilize the snowpack as near-record-high temperatures melt and saturate the snow. Move to colder, shadier aspects (or retreat altogether) before the snow surface turns to ankle-deep slush. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps and cliffs. 

Some previously wind-scoured slopes above treeline have thin spots and bare ground. Approaches and egresses will be thin on southerly aspects and all lower-elevation slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Warm temperatures aided by calm/light winds and clear skies will quickly melt, saturate, and destabilize the snowpack on most aspects and elevations. Avoid traveling in deep, slushy snow on and under steep slopes, especially near warm, sun-baked rocks and cliffs. Ski/board slopes when just the surface softens instead of skiing/boarding in ankle-deep slush. With limited avalanche terrain below treeline, avalanches will likely be small. Near and above treeline terrain may produce larger wet avalanches. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps and cliffs. 

    Near treeline, daytime temperatures for the next three days are expected to be approximately 10°F warmer than the past weekend. That's a rapid change, and the snowpack will likely destabilize. Above-freezing temperatures overnight will further contribute to wet-snowpack instability. 

    Wet-loose avalanches start on the snowpack's surface as minor point releases but will quickly entrain more snow as they descend the slope.  

    On Sunday, roller balls were released during ski turns on south-facing slopes in Humphrey's Cirque (see media photo below). On Saturday, KPAC found evidence of two small, wet-loose avalanches on southerly slopes in Beard Canyon (see media photos below). These likely occurred the previous day, Friday, March 21. The wind on Saturday accelerated water evaporation on the snow surface, preventing the snowpack from becoming too saturated and minimizing wet-loose activity.

    (5/4/2024) An example of a small wet loose avalanche on an east aspect in the Humphreys Cirque from the 2023-2024 season.

Avalanche Discussion

Lingering pockets of basal facets on steep north-facing, high-elevation slopes may exist, but none were observed during a recent tour. The surface crusts and underlying softer-density snow are variable throughout the forecast area.  On near and above treeline slopes of Humphreys Cirque, the snow surface includes 2-3" wind board and melt-freeze crusts with 4F to 1F underlying layers. 

There have been no reports of dry-snow instabilities in the past week, and the snowpack has settled rapidly. Triggering a dry-snow avalanche is unlikely. The snowpack is transitioning into a melt-freeze cycle, and with that comes an increasing likelihood of wet avalanches. See the below images of small wet-loose avalanches in Beard Canyon and Humphreys Cirque. 

Miracle March gave us two weeks of winter and some good backcountry touring. It bumped the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL weather station up to 95% of median snowpack (see the graph below).  But winds and warm temperatures over the last few days have made it harder to find good powder snow. By mid-week, most slopes and elevations will have a mature melt-freeze crust. Spring is here, and corn snow will be on tap this week. Southerly slopes near and above treeline have mature corn snow, but southerly slopes will melt quickly this week. Other aspects should fully corn up this week. Near-record-high temperatures are possible this week, and wet avalanche activity is expected. Spring skiing is all about planning and timing your tour to maximize good corn-snow turns and minimize exposure to slopes that become too wet and unstable.

Recent warm temperatures have reduced snow depth. Lower elevations and previously wind-scoured slopes above treeline have thin spots and bare ground. Many lower-angle northerly slopes below 9000' will not have snow by next weekend. Approaches and egresses are becoming thin and challenging as the snow melts. 

Crampons and ice axes will be helpful during cold mornings on steep frozen slopes. 

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected]. 

KPAC has documented evidence of several avalanches this season - Avalanche Database.  

Regions covered