Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

It will be easy to trigger an avalanche where recent winds have blown snow into sensitive slabs at upper elevations. These may be up to a foot deep, and they have formed on top of a known weak layer. Look for better surface conditions and a safer snowpack in terrain that has been sheltered from the wind. There is a very small chance that a person may be able to trigger a much larger avalanche failing on weak snow buried near the bottom of the snowpack.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We are sorry to report a fatal avalanche accident that occurred outside of Girdwood on the afternoon of March 4, 2025. Three people were caught and killed in an avalanche in the west fork of the Twentymile River. Ongoing recovery efforts are being coordinated by the Alaska State Troopers. We extend our deepest condolences to the friends and families of all parties involved.We have posted a preliminary accident report on our website. We will update this report as more details become available.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: An avalanche triggered on Tenderfoot Ridge on Monday briefly caught a dog, which was able to escape the moving snow. No people were caught or carried. The avalanche was about a foot deep and it failed where winds had blown snow into a stiffer slab on top of the Valentine's Day surface hoar layer. More details here.

    Yesterday's winds have built another round of wind slabs on top of that layer of weak snow that has been causing avalanches across the region. These will remain reactive today, and they can likely still produce avalanches up to a foot deep. The most dangerous slopes will be in steep terrain just below ridgelines, convex rollovers, and loaded gullies. These will often, but not always, give warning signs like shooting cracks or collapsing when conditions are dangerous. You can avoid this problem by sticking to terrain that has remained sheltered from the winds.

    Storm totals below are since early Wednesday morning, just over 24 hours:

    • Girdwood: 12-18" snow (1.25-1.75" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)
    • Turnagain Pass: 10-12" snow (1.0" SWE)
    • Summit Lake: 1-2" snow (0.1" SWE)
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 12-15" snow (1.2" SWE)

    Loose snow avalanches failing within the few inches of new snow from the most recent storm will become likely as things heat up this afternoon. These may be occurring naturally, so it will be important to pay attention to steep terrain above you.

    The chances of cornice falls will increase as temperatures rise this afternoon. These may fail naturally, so it's important to limit any time traveling below them. They may also be triggered from ridgelines, and they often break much further back from the edge that we'd expect. Give them plenty of space if you find yourself traveling along ridgelines today.

    Glide Avalanches: The glide cracks across the area are still on the move, some of which are still releasing into large avalanches. These are very big and completely unpredictable. The only way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling below open glide cracks. Look closely; these will likely be harder to recognize under the recent snowfall. 

    (3/3/2025)

    Close view of the crown of an avalanche that was triggered on Tenderfoot on Monday. This was a wind-loaded slope, with a firm slab sitting on top of a layer of buried surface hoar.

    Photo: Mik Dalpes

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    We are still tracking multiple layers of weak snow buried in the bottom half of the snowpack in the Summit Lake area. These are very unlikely to produce avalanches at this point. However, if an avalanche does fail on one of those layers it will be very large. We know these layers are present throughout the Summit Lake zone, and they are most concerning in the alpine. Keep this in mind as you travel today; it has been enough of a concern that we are still staying off of big terrain for now.

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