Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions today, as heavy snowfall, strong winds, and low-elevation rain make natural and human-triggered avalanches very likely. Avalanches are expected to fail on weak layers buried 1.5 to 3' deep, and may run long distances into valley bottoms. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Roof Avalanches: This storm will alternate between wet snow and rain at low elevations. This increases the chances of roof avalanches. Be mindful of overhead hazard as you are entering or exiting buildings, be careful where you park your vehicles, and keep a close eye on children and pets. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We have issued an Avalanche Warning through the National Weather Service, in effect from 6 am today through 6 am tomorrow.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until Sunday morning.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: We saw multiple natural avalanches in the Snug Harbor area earlier last week, which appear to have failed on a shallow weak layer. There was also one small but noteworthy snowmachine-triggered avalanche on a wind-loaded bank in the Boulder Creek area.

    We are in the midst of the biggest loading event we've seen since late November, and all of the new snow is loading a problematic snowpack that has been giving us warning signs for the past week. We expect to see widespread natural avalanche activity today, and these will likely be larger than what we've seen over the past week. Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions; travel in and below avalanche terrain is not recommended.

    Conditions will be most dangerous in the areas that are receiving the most snowfall. This includes the Seward/Lost Lake area, which will be favored today. Observed snow totals as of 6 am this morning are listed below:

      Snowfall Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Girdwood 10" 0.8" Portage 6-10" 0.8" Turnagain Pass 6" 0.5" Summit Lake 1" 0.1" Seward 5" 0.3"

     

    Snowfall is expected to continue today, with heavy precipitation rates expected in the Seward/Lost Lake area. This will likely bring over a foot of snow to the coastal zones, with 8 to 10" likely for the Girdwood Valley, and 4-6" for Turnagain Pass and Summit Lake. Avalanche danger will continue to be on the rise as snow keeps piling up, and conditions will remain dangerous even after the snow stops. 

    (1/7/2026)

    Snowmachine triggered avalanche in upper Boulder Creek drainage

    Photo: Marc Heifetz

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Snowfall is expected to continue today, with heavy precipitation rates expected in the Seward/Lost Lake area. This will likely bring over a foot of snow to the coastal zones, with 8 to 10" likely for the Girdwood Valley, and 4 to 6" for Turnagain Pass and Summit Lake. Avalanche danger will continue to be on the rise as snow keeps piling up, and conditions will remain dangerous even after the snow stops. 

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