Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Conditions become dangerous as you climb into windy terrain. You can reduce the odds of triggering a large avalanche by avoiding slopes with stiff, wind-drifted snow at the surface. Triggering a much larger, 3-6 foot thick slab avalanche is far less likley but not out of the question. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Expect to find fresh wind drifts and slabs up to 3 feet thick in exposed terrain near and above about 9000'.  Today's strong wind and snowfall could produce natural avalanche activity. Watch for dunes or smooth pillows below ridgelines and cornices, on the sides of cross-loaded gullies, and below large cliff faces and couloirs in the craggy Sawtooth Mtns.

    Fortunately, the fresh wind slabs should be easy to spot and avoid. If you feel the surface snow getting stiffer, move to gentler terrain. Cracks shooting out from your skis or sled are an obvious sign that you've found a wind slab. Natural and human-triggered slides have the potential to trigger the much larger Persistent Slabs described below as the wind slab avalanche moves downslope.

    (12/18/2025) Natural wind slab avalanches on a NE-facing slope near 8900' on Copper Mountain. Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    Weeks of heavy, dense snowfall, rain, and warm temperatures formed thick, meaty slabs on most middle and upper elevation slopes. Multiple crusts may be buried in the upper 3 feet of the snowpack, providing possible failure layers where the crusts are relatively thin (example photo). Today's snowfall and strong winds will maintain the threat of triggering large avalanches. 

    Assume the slab + weak layer (crust) setup exists on all slopes until proven otherwise. You may not experience obvious signs of instability—like snowpack collapsing or cracks shooting out from your skis or sled—before triggering an avalanche. 

    As you change elevation and aspect, or travel through different drainages, you'll see significant variability in the buried crusts. This uncertainty makes it challenging to accurately predict which slopes could still cause trouble. There's an outside chance you could trigger avalanches remotely—from flat terrain below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. 

    Additional Discussion: Weak, sugary, faceted snow in the bottom third of the snowpack is now buried 4-8 feet deep on W-NW-N-NE-E-SE facing slopes at middle and upper elevations. Triggering a huge slide on these layers is unlikely but would be unsurvivable. You're most likely to poke this beast in windy and/or rocky areas where the snowpack depth is variable, and near the mouths of the drainages near Smiley Creek.  

    (12/23/2025) A large natural avalanche on a N/NE facing slope at 9300' in the western Smoky Mtns. Photo: Jeremy Lato

Avalanche Discussion

Limited data and observations indicate much of this zone has a 5-8 foot deep snowpack. In these wetter areas, you are far more likley to trigger smaller avalanches involving recently formed drifts and slabs than monster slides like those occurring in the Galena & E Mtns zone.

However, where the snowpack is thinner, triggering wide, thick Persistent Slab avalanches on the buried crusts or facets remains possible. Watch for thinner snowpacks in the headwaters of the Salmon River and Frenchman Ck drainages, near the mouths of Smiley and Beaver Ck, and on the eastern front of the Sawtooth Mtns. 

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