Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

While natural avalanches are unlikely today, we are getting obvious signs from the snowpack that it is unstable. There are good chances a person could trigger a very large avalanche anywhere throughout our zones. One of these dangerous avalanches could be triggered from low angle terrain below a steep slope. You can completely avoid this problem by sticking to simple terrain, which is is less than 30°, not connected to steeper slopes above, and doesn't have terrain traps like gullies below.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    Recent avalanches: Another large avalanche occurred yesterday just outside Girdwood on Penguin Peak. DOT drone imagery shows goat tracks next to the crown suggesting it was goat-triggered. Monday afternoon a large natural was observed on the south side of Tincan in the Library. Both of these are south facing slopes that were triggered in the alpine. A very large natural avalanche cycle occurred during and after the storm last week. 

    We are still getting signs like whumpfing and unstable test results that clearly tell us the snowpack needs more time. The way to safely manage this problem for now is to stick to low angle (simple) terrain, ensuring there is nothing steep above.

    Unfortunately, this problem isn't going away anytime soon. We are dealing with an unusually dangerous weak layer that exists across all of our zones and is buried up to 4' deep. This weak layer is so sensitive it could be triggered from flat terrain below a steep slope. Or it could be the third, fourth, or tenth rider that finds the thin spot and triggers a very large avalanche taking out all previous tracks. If your plan includes approaching steep terrain ensure all safety gear has been checked, travel one at a time in or under steep terrain, watch your partners, and park or stop in places that are well away from runouts.

     

     

    (1/19/2026)

    This remote-triggered avalanche that occurred on the Widowmaker on Jan. 16 wrapped around multiple major terrain features. Using digital mapping tools, we are confident this was in the neighborhood of a mile wide.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Ridgetop winds have calmed across the region. The wind slabs that are out there are getting old, but the older ones can catch you off guard. They become stubborn and can let you get way out onto a slope before releasing. They can be found just below ridgelines, on steep rolls, and in cross-loaded gullies. Triggering one of these old wind slabs could trigger a much larger and more dangerous avalanche described above. 

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