Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We're in a multi-day storm cycle that will result in dangerous avalanche conditions on Saturday. Expect a transition from wet to dry avalanche problems along with bigger and more sensitive slides as you ascend in elevation. Make sure your travel plans account for the volatile weather and early-season conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The first big storm of the season is set to deliver snow measured in feet to the volcanoes and select areas of the crest. Regardless of your location, expect avalanche hazard to increase significantly as you ascend in elevation. The snowpack up high is much more winterlike than what you'll experience when you step out of your car.

    Avalanches could occur on any steep slope containing continuous snow coverage, but should be easier to trigger near rocky features or in wind-loaded terrain. You can use quick handpits as you travel to look for interstorm layers that could fail, or if the underlying wet snow is weak and prone to collapse. If you see fresh avalanche debris, blocks of snow failing easily in your tests, or are sinking through both new and old snow all the way to the ground, head for lower-angled terrain.

    (12/8/2024)

    Quick hand pits as you travel can give you an indication of slab potential or weak points in the recent storm snow.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    We’re expected to be in a snowy pattern on Saturday, but we just received a lot of rain, and unfortunately, it is predicted to return sooner rather than later. That could happen Saturday afternoon if temperatures rise faster than forecast. All that said, wet avalanches need to be on your radar if you’re traveling in the mountains.

    Loose Wet avalanches often start at a point, such as near rocks, and then fan out as they descend. If it's raining or you find wet, unconsolidated snow, be leery of slopes over 35 degrees that have continuous snow coverage. Those are the most likely locations where one of these slides could occur.

    (12/3/2025)

    Wet Loose avalanches originating near rocks and trees on steep slopes in the Paradise area.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

We're back and ready for another great season! We hope you all had a lovely summer. Whether you've been following the weather and snowpack development closely this fall, or this is your first glimpse into what's currently happening in the mountains, we're happy you're here, collectively prepping our snow brains for the winter ahead. 

As we kick off this season, information, snow depths, and confidence are all generally low. However, snow coverage has slowly increased over the past few weeks due to a series of small storms. As you ascend in elevation, you will no doubt find winter is alive and well. It’s at these elevations where you need to take the most care and realize that avalanches can occur. Above roughly 6000 feet, NWAC forecasters found 2 feet of snow at Paradise this week and 1.5 feet of snow near Crystal Mountain.  Friday's rain likely diminished these numbers, but Saturday's storm should more than make up for the snow lost. 

Lower elevations, on the other hand, are a mixed bag. In some areas of the zone, there may not be sufficient coverage for travel, let alone avalanches. In contrast, other areas may have just enough to reach a low hazard rating. That doesn't mean avalanches can't occur; it just means they're unlikely. 

So we know that it's dangerous up high, and not very dangerous down low, but what about in the middle? There will be a natural transition from benign to hazardous as you ascend in elevation. Again, it's a large zone, so avalanche potential may depend on your location or how the weather is playing out.  If the snow is stacking up on Saturday, expect avalanches to follow. If it's raining or snow is falling on bare ground, you can assume less potential. 

The constant throughout the zone and all elevations is that early-season hazards such as exposed rocks, creeks, and bushes are prevalent. Some of these may be easy to spot, while others are hiding under the new snow. The weather is expected to be wet and wild for the foreseeable future, rotating between snow and rain with periods of strong winds. So conditions can change quickly, and information is limited right now. If you're out in the mountains, be sure to let us know what you're seeing by submitting an observation.

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.

Regions covered