Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Be cautious of recently windloaded slopes at upper elevations, where it is possible to trigger a slab that breaks 1 to 2 feet deep in the recently drifted snow. The snowpack is quieting down in sheltered or windward terrain, and you’ll also find higher-quality turns where the last round of northwest winds didn’t thicken the snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Most avalanche concerns today involve slabs of drifted snow that formed over the facets and faceted crusts from our January drought.  These slabs, typically less than 2 feet thick, could remain sensitive to human triggers on some leeward terrain features, most commonly on east to south-facing aspects at higher elevations and on crossloaded features elsewhere.  Because these recent slabs formed on highly variable snow surfaces, expect hit-or-miss feedback as you move through the terrain.  Collapses and shooting cracks are clear red flags. There is isolated potential for a slab failing in the upper snowpack to step down and trigger a deeper, harder avalanche near the ground. The most reliable way to manage this problem is conservative terrain selection—sticking to slopes under 30° or small terrain features without terrain traps.   Lower-elevation southerly aspects offer the safest snowpack, and slabs are typically less developed in wind-protected or wind-eroded terrain.

    Several large avalanches that failed on windloaded southeast-facing slopes over the weekend.  

Avalanche Discussion

The danger is on its gradual downtrend after the loading event and natural cycle that occurred over the weekend, with significant storm totals heavily favoring the Ruby Range. Based on an abrupt downturn in explosive results as Irwin works further into their Westwall terrain, paired with some reports of a quickly quieting snowpack, I expected we’d lower the danger to Moderate in the Northwest Mountains today. However, our forecasters continue to trigger large, scary collapses on wind-loaded southeast aspects, where the combination of productive windloading on Sunday onto a collapsible crust seems to be preserving sensitivity. Triggering a persistent slab may still fit with likely today on slopes like these, whereas the rest of the compass, possible (or stubborn), clearly fits now. This video looks at a concerning structure from a recent avalanche above Rock Creek; some or all of these ingredients have been found in yesterday’s collapses reported by two of our forecasters in separate areas. 

Without the additional stress from windloading, the low-density snow that fell over the weekend seems to have found a happy medium with the fragile facets below. Stay alert for shooting cracks or collapses to alert you to possible exceptions. Many of the higher north- to northwest-facing slopes lack our most recent slabs due to wind erosion, and the bull's-eye for this newest problem is pointed east to south.  The avalanche activity rose from the weekend cycle highlights the pattern well.    Note that we are painting a broad distribution on the persistent rose because you can find freshly cross-loaded slabs over facets on most aspects, and old, hard slabs linger on some windward slopes as you descend below the obvious scoured areas near the ridgetop.   Recent avalanche activity on our early-season weak layers has been rare, but we've found a few slides over the weekend that appear to have stepped down (e.g., Baldy, Schofield Park).  

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