Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger rises as snowfall accumulates throughout the day.  Storm totals may reach a foot of dense snow by the afternoon, producing dangerous conditions.  The most hazardous terrain is typically found in the northern half of the compass, where multiple weak layers exist.  Natural avalanches are possible during periods of heavy precipitation or wind loading.  Some avalanches can be remotely triggered from below or a distance.  You can find safer terrain options on slopes 30 degrees or less, and on wind-sheltered sunny terrain, which is less likely to harbor sensitive weak layers.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The snowpack on the north side of the compass possesses a variable mix of weak snow.  At higher elevations, weak facets can be found at the base of the snowpack, in the middle of the snowpack from the mid-December drought period, and near the Christmas crust below about 10,700 feet.  Several human-triggered avalanches have released on these layers over the past week (Schuylkill Ridge, Marble 1, Marble 2).  Additional loading for the current storm will increase the sensitivity and size of the avalanche problem.  The highly variable distribution of weak layers due to previous avalanche activity, extreme wind events, and rain may create variable feedback.  Use caution today if you travel near steep slopes on the north side of the compass, as cracking and collapsing may not provide reliable feedback before you trigger a dangerous avalanche.  You can reliably avoid the problem by choosing slopes less than 30 degrees, not beneath steeper terrain, or head to sunnier aspects where sensitive weak layers are less common.

    (12/28/2025)

    The crown of a skier-triggered avalanche along Schuylkill Ridge.  Avalanches like this will become more likely as snow accumulates on Friday.      

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Dense, heavy snow will accumulate today with totals potentially nearing a foot.  As the snow stacks up, it may become possible to trigger avalanches in the storm snow, particularly if you encounter wind-drifted deposits at higher elevations and during periods of strong snowfall.  The dense nature of the snow may create cohesive slabs that are thinner than typically seen in our area.    Look for clues like cracking in the storm snow or use hand pits to check how the new snow is bonding to old surfaces.  You can reduce your risk by avoiding freshly drifted snow and deferring to lower-angle terrain when you experience cracking.

    A Storm Slab avalanche from a previous winter.  This avalanche was triggered after a few hours of heavy snowfall (rates greater than 1 inch an hour).

    Crested Butte Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

The current storm is underproducing, but weather models suggest a solid shot of snow for areas to the west and north of Crested Butte (Northwest Mountains Forecast Zone) later today.  Snow Water Equivalents are running at a much higher density than normal, so the impact on buried weak layers will be greater than you might anticipate.  The avalanche hazard will be notably higher in the Northwest Mountains, where the most snow accumulates, and less hazardous in the Southeast Mountains due to less storm snow.

Observations and human-triggered avalanches from the past week highlight a generally weak snowpack with fragile weak layers on the northern half of the compass.  Below around 10,700 feet, you will encounter a crust from the Christmas rain event that often has facets below and/or above.  This video from the Anthracite Range illustrates this structure and highlights the sensitive nature of the weak layer.  As you ascend to higher elevations, weak facets from the early season and mid-December drought become the problem structure.  Anticipate a high degree of variation in the snowpack as you travel, and expect conditions could vary greatly from one slope to the next due to the unusual weather events this season.  As snow accumulates throughout the day, expect the sensitivity of avalanche problems to increase and for conditions to deteriorate. 

In the Southeast Mountains, storm totals will have much less impact on today's hazard.  However, if you encounter more than 6 inches of new snow, assume conditions are worse than forecasted.  Weak snow is common, but older slabs are isolated across the landscape and typically found in wind-drifted locations.  If the storm doesn't create a new slab, then conditions will not change much from recent days.  Dense storm snow may create a cohesive slab that is thinner than we usually see in Crested Butte.  Carefully monitor the storm totals to identify an increase in hazard. 

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