Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Fresh snowfall and a previously weak snowpack make the avalanche hazard elevated.  Expect to trigger avalanches on slopes facing northerly and easterly aspects especially where southwest/west winds drifted snow.  Avalanches are possible in sheltered terrain where you find around 10 inches or more of storm snow resting over old, weak snow.  Cracking and collapsing of the snowpack signal unstable conditions.  You can reduce your risk of avalanche by selecting slopes 30 degrees or less on problematic aspects and avoiding wind-drifted terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    You will find a fragile base to the snowpack on northerly and easterly aspects from the early seasonal snowfall back in October.  Storm totals may reach or exceed 10 inches on Saturday which is likely to overload the weak early season snowpack.  Last weekend a similar-sized storm produced a natural avalanche cycle and we should expect similar results this weekend (watch the video for further details).  Early warning signs include shooting cracks or a collapsing snowpack.  Choose lower-angled terrain for aspects highlighted on the Persistent Slab rose to reduce your chance of triggering an avalanche and avoid traveling directly beneath or on steep wind-drifted slopes. 

Avalanche Discussion

Snowfall has slowly accumulated since Thursday night and will continue to lightly fall through the middle part of Saturday.  Storm totals may exceed 10 inches in some areas which may not sound like a lot, but this will likely be enough to produce dangerous avalanche conditions on slopes harboring old weak, faceted snow from early-season storms (northwest through north through east).  We can look back to last weekend's storm as a 'crystal ball' to anticipate the conditions this weekend.  Last weekend a similar size storm produced a natural avalanche cycle on shady aspects at upper elevations.  This weekend we can expect similarly dangerous conditions near and above treeline, but there is a chance that slab avalanche problems will expand into sheltered terrain.  Old, weak snow exists below treeline on shady aspects and is waiting for a slab to form.  The current storm might finally form a slab in sheltered areas so look for signs of instability in sheltered areas to clue you into the expanding Persistent Slab problem.

Sunny aspects have produced few signs of instability or avalanches yet this season.  The south half of the compass generally lacks the persistent weak layers found on northerly aspects, however, some high-elevation sunny slopes developed a thin snowpack for the current storm to accumulate on.  It's possible for some high-elevation, southerly slopes to produce avalanches particularly where you find fresh wind loading.  

Take a slow and cautious approach this weekend if you venture out into the backcountry.  The snowpack is thin which increases the consequences of taking a ride in an avalanche as you could easily be dragged over rocks and logs. 

Regions covered