Snow returns to the Juneau area today! Current NWS forecasts are predicting 12-20" of new snowfall for the mountains of Douglas by Sunday morning and moderate to strong East to Southeast winds are forecasted to accompany the precipitation. These conditions will cause fresh storm slabs to rapidly develop. As winds ramp up through Saturday evening, wind slabs will be generated in alpine areas as wind transports the new storm snow. Avalanche danger will quickly rise to moderate today for middle and upper elevation areas as wind and snow rates increase. Human triggered avalanches will be possible as the new storm snow will likley be very reactive.
Fresh snow and wind combined with warming temperatures on Saturday will generate storm slabs. Storm slab conditions are generally wide spread in nature and are commonly most reactive to triggers as they are actively building and for the first 24 hours after a storm.
Winds are forecasted to increase through the day and into the evening on Saturday. Moderate to strong E/SE winds will transport fresh storm snow from exposed areas and deposit it in lee areas and features creating fresh wind slabs. Watch out for reactive wind slabs in upper elevation and wind expposed areas.
Things will start out relatively tame this morning as snowfall has not yet begun but will be quickly changing as we start to see rapid snow accumulation throughout the day as well as that snowfall gradually getting warmer and wetter. This set up leads to what is referred to as an upside down snowpack with wet heavy snow sitting on top of dryer light snow leading to potentially touchy storm slabs. Winds are also expected to ramp up throughout the storm giving us fresh wind slab to add to our avalanche problems.
After an extended period of no new snow excitement levels will be high to get out in the new snow, it is important to remember that during a storm is often when things are at their most tender before they have a chance to settle out. Remember to keep an eye out for the 5 red flags, heavy snowfall or rain, windblown snow, signs of unstable snow like cracking, collapsing or whumpfing, rapid thaw, and recent avalanches. Be aware of terrain traps as low snow conditions make things like gullies, open creeks and treed areas especially dangerous. Even a small slide leading into one of these terrain traps can potentially bury someone very deep.
Please remember that when Eaglecrest is not in operation it is considered backcountry terrain and no avalanche mitigation has taken place. Make sure to travel with a partner, carry beacon, probe, shovel, and avalanche transceiver. Check that beacons have a good battery level and are transmitting and receiving, Practice good travel techniques by staying out from under avalanche paths and runout zones and avoiding large connected slopes. Make sure to ski one at a time with all parties keeping an eye on the on slope skier/rider. You can also avoid danger by skiing slopes less than 30 degrees.
