Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering 1-2 foot thick slab avalanches that break widely is possible. It would take a dose of bad luck, but triggering a much larger slide that fails 3-5 feet below the snow surface remains on the table. Smaller, wet snow avalanches will occur on steep, rocky slopes where the snow is being melted by the sun. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Several weak layers are buried within the upper 2 feet of the snowpack. Multiple human-triggered avalanches involving this snow were reported in the past 10 days (Profile drainage, Alturas Lake Creek, near Dollarhide Summit). This weak snow has produced avalanches on both shaded slopes and slopes facing the sun. On sunny slopes you'll find a sun crust with associated facets. On shaded slopes you'll find a few thin rain crusts with small facets sandwiched in between. 

    This weak layer is highly variable. On some slopes it is well bonded, while on others it is producing large avalanches. You may find good stability on one slope and then trigger an avalanche when you change to a nearby slope. Cracks shooting out from your skis or machine are a clear sign you've found an unstable slab. The human-triggered slides that have failed on this layer have been triggered from a distance (remotely). 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION - DEEP PERSISTENT SLAB: The weak layer that produced widespread avalanche activity in January is now deeply buried here. If you dig down, you'll eventually find it buried underneath a very dense 3-5 foot thick slab of snow. Triggering one of these monsters is unlikely, but the result would be catastrophic. The most likely terrain for making one of these beasts is steep, rocky, wind-affected terrain where the snowpack has thinner spots that give you access to the weak layer. You can watch a video I made describing this problem here.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and somewhat windier. Wet snow issues should remain relatively small and predictable. Sunny slopes start the day capped with a stout crust that will break down as the sun goes to work warming and melting the snow. If you are finding stacks of wet snow on the surface, these types of slides are coming onto the menu. The steep and rocky terrain of the Sawtooths is "great" at producing these slides.

    Even small slides can knock you off your feet and send you down through unpleasant terrain. Natural and triggered slides will travel quickly downslope on buried crusts. These types of slides can also serve as triggers for the larger avalanches failing on layers of weak snow described above.

Avalanche Discussion

The meaning of MODERATE

The Avalanche Danger Scale is an imperfect tool. This is particularly apparent during periods of decreasing danger with widespread persistent slab problems. We find ourselves in this exact situation today. The likelihood of triggering very large avalanches is gradually decreasing following major loading events earlier this month. As this likelihood drops, the Avalanche Danger drops with it. The important thing to remember here is that decreasing danger is very different than a lack of danger. 

As we choose to enter avalanche terrain with widespread buried weak layers, we are choosing to accept the outcome of those choices. If we're lucky, we can enter big, steep avalanche terrain, get tons of snow in our faces, and return home to tell our friends about it. If we aren't so lucky, we trigger an avalanche that can wipe our house off its foundation. We can stack the odds in our favor by avoiding the type of terrain where triggering a large persistent avalanche is most likely:  big, alpine terrain that is steep, rocky, wind-swept and peppered with rocks. Here, the snowpack has a lot more trigger points where we can access the weak layers underneath the very dense slabs. 

The goal of an avalanche forecast is to give you the information you need to travel how you want to travel in the mountains. What you do with that information is completely up to you. If you are entering avalanche terrain today, be aware that the possibility of triggering large, unsurvivable avalanches is on the table. 

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