Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

2 to 3 feet of low-density snow fell Wednesday and moderate winds picked up last night and should easily transport and stiffen snow into soft wind slabs.  Today you can trigger long-running dry loose snow avalanches on all aspects in wind-sheltered steep terrain that can entrain more snow as it quickly slides down the slope. Sluff management is essential and could have serious consequences if it sweeps you off your feet above a cliff or pushes you into a terrain trap where snow can pile up. Watch for wind slabs that formed at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain.  Pay attention to shooting cracks on the surface and obvious wind-drifted pillows or a stiffening of the surface.  These newly formed wind slabs may be sensitive and able to propagate across terrain features.   

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    2 to 3 feet of light low-density snow from this last storm system was relieving itself naturally during the intense periods of snowfall Wednesday.  This light cohesionless snow typically starts as a small point release and can quickly entrain more snow as it travels quickly down the slope as if it's running like water.  With warming temperatures and sunny skies today, this type of avalanche may happen naturally typically starting around exposed rocks that are directly in the sun.  If you find yourself on terrain steeper than 35 degrees sluff management will be essential.  These types of avalanches start small, but could take you off your feet which can be problematic in consequential terrain above cliffs or where snow could push you into a terrain trap below.   A smaller point release has the potential to fan out and trigger a wider propagating slab creating a larger avalanche.

    Long-running loose snow avalanches that ran naturally during the storm on Wednesday on a north aspect off of Sin Nombre Peak. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate winds picked up last night in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts in the upper 20's.  With an abundance of low-density snow available for transport, expect to find soft winds slabs mainly above treeline and wind-exposed slopes on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain.  Pay attention to changes in the surface, from obvious wind-drifted pillows to textured snow like sastrugi and an overall stiffening of the surface.   Shooting cracks off of your tips or loud audible collapses is another indication you've found wind drifted snow. A wind slab avalanche has the ability to propagate across slopes and terrain features and could be large enough to injure or bury you.

    Winds picked up overnight out of the N and NE and should easily transport and help stiffen the low-density from Wednesday's storm.

Avalanche Discussion

Not a bad way to start February and say goodbye to an overall warm and dry January.  Storm totals are 28 to 36 inches of snow with 1.25 to 1.5 inches of SWE, which equates to very light low-density snow! Temperatures this morning are frigid and mountain temps are all hovering just below 0 F, with Angel Fire at - 30 F.  Today will bring a slow warming trend with temperatures climbing into the teens and 20's under sunny skies.  

It's deep out there! Breaking trail feels more like slogging, and there's no chance you'll be able to make low-angle powder turns.  This type of deep light snow will push you into steeper terrain, just to be able to make turns. Unless you want to do some downhill skinning or just go out for a walk, you'll be forced to step out into avalanche terrain. So if you're planning on skiing the steep and deep understand that careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making are essential today.    

In travels yesterday I was not finding widespread cracking or stiffening of the surface at upper elevations, however, did observe pockets of small natural storm slab avalanches on all aspects and elevations.  The new snow most likely will not be bonding well to the old snow surface that was weak facets and firmer crusts prior to this storm. Winds did pick up overnight and I'd expect sensitive wind slabs to develop at upper elevations. 

This was the first significant storm since the last big avalanche cycle we had on New Years Day that produced very large natural persistent slab avalanches. Although snowfall totals are high, the overall water weight of the snow was less than 1.5" of SWE and may not be enough to tip the scales on its own.  Over the last month of mainly high pressure, these depth hoar/facet layers near the ground on northerly aspects near and above treeline have become dormant and non-reactive under settling slabs. I did not observe natural avalanche activity on these deeper weak layers but have also not made it to other zones in Long Canyon and Red River ridgeline to Wheeler peak where overall snowpack depths were quite a bit shallower than in the Williams Lake Drainage.  There is still some uncertainty about this persistent weak layer before I fully trust it and how it would react to the added stress of a rider. There is a lower likelihood of triggering one of these deep persistent slab avalanches but the consequences would be incredibly high if you were to trigger one.   

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