Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The chances of triggering a persistent slab avalanche are decreasing after a series of pronounced melt-freeze cycles over the last 5 days, the strongest of which occurred yesterday. Your highest chances of impacting near surface facets or crust/facet combos lurking in the upper meter of snowpack are on North and East-facing terrain at upper elevations, where the intense recent warming failed to build a stout crust. If you got unlucky and collapsed one of these weak layers on a steep slope, the resulting avalanche could break high above you and propagate widely across a slope, making it very difficult to escape. Keep this in mind if you step onto bigger terrain today and don't expose more than one person at a time.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Problematic weak layers lurk 1-3 feet  below the surface, namely near surface facets on shadier aspects and faceted crusts on sunnier aspects that formed in late February and early March. On W-N-E aspects in the alpine, you can continue to find them sitting underneath a hard slab to which they are currently well-adjusted. You're unlikely to collapse these weak layers in your travels today, but if you did the resulting avalanches would be large and difficult to escape. The most suspect places are slopes near and above treeline that have not yet built a stout crust (N-NE). You'd have to get unlucky on most other slopes, but that doesn't mean there isn't a slight chance. Continue using sound terrain and risk management techniques if you're skiing in avalanche terrain today.

    Deeper down in the snowpack, depth hoar and the early January drought facet layer are present in areas roughly less than 1.5m deep, but are lying dormant for the time being. If this upcoming storm brings enough moisture and wind, that would certainly reactivate the potential for avalanches failing on these layers. For now, you're pretty unlikely to trigger a slide on these older weak layers.

    (3/14/2024)

    East Aspect near treeline. Near surface facets about 35-40cm deep failed on easy force in this spot.

    Photo: Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

It's shaping up to be another exciting weekend in the mountains. Today is the last day of springy temps and is your best chance to get out and explore before Sunday's resurgence of intense winter. The warm sunny weather of the past week peaked yesterday with temperatures reaching 30 degrees on Kachina Peak and a solid refreeze last night. This has built thicker and firmer crusts all over the forecast area. With plenty of wind and clouds on the table today, those surfaces will be slow to soften up but should improve by the afternoon. If you're out on the early side and would prefer to avoid riding on firm crust or ice, you can still find some good soft snow on sheltered North-facing terrain where cold snow near the surface has continued faceting. This next storm is expected to bring a decent amount of moisture (up to 1.2" SWE) but also a lot of wind. Backcountry travel conditions will deteriorate overnight and the avalanche danger will start to rise. We'll check back in tomorrow with the most up-to-date info on the storm, but it's shaping up to be another chance to get in your March powder turns.

Today, your chances of triggering a persistent slab avalanche will be lower than they have been in recent weeks. Yesterday was one of the warmest days we've had all season, and definitely did some work to thicken the latest round of melt-freeze crusts on the surface. Most aspects from E-S-W are going to contain a pretty robust version of this crust, and that's going to make it difficult to impact any of the weak layers that exist in the top meter of snowpack. On North-facing and some sheltered East-facing terrain, you won't find these crusts, but you will find snow that is breaking down and faceting atop a hard slab. These are the slopes where you're most likely to impact a weak layers (near surface facets on these slopes), but the slabs have also lost some elasticty thanks to all this intense warming and refreezing and will be less likely to propagate. All that said, LOW danger does not mean NO danger, so keep the persistent slab problem on your radar and use extra caution if you step onto larger slopes above treeline. Below treeline areas are either completely melted out now or have a pretty shallow snowpack that doesn't contain a very conhesive slab. You're quite unlikely to encounter any snowpack structure with a strong-over-weak setup at these elevations, except maybe in the deepest places.

Once the next storm lands, you can expect the avalanche danger to rise rapidly.  Strong winds will initially be the driving factor behind this shift, as they will rapidly build new slabs on leeward slopes, overstressing the weak layers near the surface and causing wind slab avalanches that have the potential to step down. Our early season weak layers may also resurface as a discussion topic if the storm produces consistent snowfall through Wednesday as expected. Stay safe out there today and be ready to dial it back tomorrow once the moisture tap starts to flow.

 

 

 

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