Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Considerable.  Recent snowfall continues to put stress on weak layers in our snowpack.  Human triggered avalanches are likely 1-2+ feet in depth. It is possible for avalanches to step down to deeper layers in the snowpack and create large destructive avalanches.  Wet loose avalanches remain a concern at low elevation.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Avalanche conditions will remain similar to yesterday. Light to moderate snowfall will continue to add load and build slab depth over weak snow. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Human-triggered avalanches are likely, and could be 1–2+ feet deep. In steep, rocky terrain and in areas with a thinner snowpack, avalanches may step down into deeper weak layers in the snowpack (see Problem 2).

    On the north side of Thompson Pass, 1-2 cm buried surface hoar over a rain crust continues to be found up to 3000’. In most areas we’ve observed, the buried surface hoar has been flattened/laid over, except north of our Continental zone, where it has remained more intact. As the slab above this layer stiffens and thickens, expect longer propagation and the potential for larger, more connected releases. A few small natural avalanches have recently been observed on steep rollovers in the Python Buttress area. In the Maritime zone, buried surface hoar is no longer widespread due to warm temperatures and rain.

    Above 3000’, buried surface hoar has not been identified, but a reactive interface exists. On 2/6, two separate skier-triggered avalanches at upper elevation propagated widely for the terrain and resulted in full and partial burials on different aspects. See the Observation section for details.

    Travel advice: The best way to manage this problem is to avoid complex terrain and slopes steeper than 30°. Both incidents occurred with no obvious warning signs beforehand. Snowpits are not a reliable assessment tool for this problem—small differences in slab thickness or stiffness can greatly change sensitivity.

    (2/6/2026)

    Skier triggered avalanche on Girls Mountain/ 6000'/ E/NE. Fracture character connecting through the rocks along with a sympathetic avalanche on the lookers left of the photo indicate a persistent grain at the interface.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures are trending down, but are still expected to be above freezing with more rain possible today.   Wet loose natural and human triggered avalanches will be a concern today in steep low elevation terrain.  Pay attention to surface conditions.  If wet snow exists at the surface then wet loose avalanches are a concern in terrain steeper than 30°.  Be aware that even small wet loose slides can be powerful and can knock a traveler off their feet or machine.  Pay attention to not only the slope you are traveling on but what is above and below you.  It is reccomended to avoid terrain traps and steep terrain at low elevations today.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    A deeply buried weak layer near the ground remains a concern, especially in steep, rocky terrain and areas with a thinner snowpack. Triggering this layer is unlikely for most travelers right now, but if it does fail the result would be large, destructive avalanches with severe consequences.

    This problem is most likely to show itself where the snowpack is shallow or variable around rock outcrops, scoured features, convex rollovers, and ridge tops. The likelihood may increase over time with additional loading from new snow and wind, or with warming from the sun in the future.

    Travel advice: Avoid committing to big, consequential terrain where a deep release would be unsurvivable. Choose routes that minimize time spent under overhead start zones and avoid thin, rocky trigger points.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  

Cracked Ice: 5600' W/NW ARu-SS-R4-D2.5

(2/6/2026)

Skier triggered avalanche on Cracked Ice. ~500' wide/ ~2' deep. ARu-SS-R4-D2.5

Photo: Gareth Brown

Easter Bunny: 6000' E/NE ASu-SS-R5-D2.5

(2/6/2026)

Skier triggered avalanche on Girls Mountain/ 6000'/ E/NE. Fracture character connecting through the rocks along with a sympathetic avalanche on the lookers left of the photo indicate a persistent grain at the interface.

School bus: 5000' W/NW N-SS-R2-D2

(2/6/2026)

This slab released naturally on Feb 5th or early on the 6th. 

Photo: Joshua McDonald

Several small naturals were observed on the Python buttress at elevations associated with the 1/26 BSH layer

 

Forecast Discussion

Light to moderate snowfall is expected to continue today, adding stress to weak layers in the snowpack. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche will be likely in steep terrain. Shallow storm and wind slabs may also be present, especially where new snow has drifted.

With our current setup, dangerous conditions can exist even without obvious signs of instability. A lack of red flags does not mean the snowpack is stable. If you do experience signs of instability—cracking, collapsing, or recent avalanche activity—take them seriously and adjust your terrain accordingly.

There is great snow to be had in low angle terrain right now.  We recommend conservative terrain choices while the snowpack continues to be loaded by new snow. These instabilities are not expected to heal quickly, and conditions may become more dangerous before they improve as multiple waves of snowfall are forecast over the next week.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.   

Regions covered