Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is Considerable above 2000 feet and moderate below.  Human triggered avalanches are likely 1-3+ feet in depth.  Natural avalanches are possible.  Light snowfall is forecasted and is not expected to have a serious effect on stability today.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Our main concern continues to revolve around a layer of faceted snow (weak) that is buried around 2' deep.  While signs may point towards decreasing sensitivity, the size and distribution of recent natural and human triggered avalanches continue to keep our team concerned about the possibility of large human triggered avalanches today and in the days ahead.

    The slab above the weak layer has changed significantly in the last few days.  We have gone from a mostly right side up slab consisting of powder snow, to a now top heavy slab with stiffer wind affected snow at the surface.  It is difficult to know what this has done to the sensitivity of our persistent slab across the entire region; we do know that the slab has become more cohesive and connected.  Weak snow may be more difficult to trigger, but if initiated, avalanches could propagate deeper and wider than expected.

    This is a dangerous setup because conditions can feel more “manageable” than they really are, similar to the stubborn wind slab problems we often see on Thompson Pass a couple days after a wind event, while a deeper weak layer still lurks underneath.   We recommend users continue to take a cautious approach and keep terrain choices simple today as uncertainty remains high.  Maintain good communication with your group and only expose one person at a time to avalanche terrain.

    Wind Slab:  Recently formed wind slabs will be stubborn  to reactive to triggers in specific areas such as cross loaded slopes, gullies, rollovers, and terrain near ridgelines.  As stated above the main concern is that a windslab avalanche that is initiated could affect weak snow deeper in the snowpack, making large, dangerous avalanches.

    (2/12/2026)

    Natural persistent slab avalanche on north Catchers Mitt. Crown width mapped at~.8 miles

    Photo: Kyle Sobek

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    A deeply buried weak layer near the ground remains a low-likelihood, high-consequence problem—especially in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or highly variable. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely at this time, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack may step down to the basal weak layer, particularly in the Continental zone.

    Watch for thin spots near rock outcrops, scoured features, convex rollovers, and along ridge tops. Wind loading adds stress to these shallow areas, and we don’t know where the tipping point is.

    (2/13/2026)

    Clueland deep slab (Eastern Tiekel Valley)/ NW 2/13

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: 

Small wind slabs were observed on south aspects of Town Mountain and Moonlight Basin at mid elevations

Forecast Discussion

A short lived wind event on 2/16 failed to produce meaningful natural avalanche activity.  Light snowfall is expected today followed by a stronger and more prolonged outflow wind event starting Thursday afternoon.  Even though we did not see the snowpack produce naturals with the initial round of wind loading, we believe large human triggered avalanches remain a threat.  There are multiple factors regarding the 1/26 layer that continue to have us concerned. 

#1- The layer was formed during a week of high pressure in the middle of January that was strongly inverted and dead calm.  This allowed a wide spread layer of faceted snow to form on all aspects and elevations.  The lack of wind was the most notable feature and is rare for mid winter high pressure on Thompson Pass.

#2- The natural avalanche activity from 2/12 is notable due to the length of some propagations, with N Catchers Mitt producing an avalanche .8 miles in width, showing the continuity of the weak layer.  In addition to size of avalanches was their locations, persistent slab avalanches on Little and Big Oddessey are a clear indication that this layer is widespread, as these areas typically do not have facets at the surface that become buried intact due to the amount of wind this terrain receives even during calm periods.  

#3- Natural avalanches have not yet occurred in the northern extent of the intermountain zone or in the Continental zone.  We believe this is due to less loading not a lack of the weak layer.  Actually, the 1/26 layer is more pronounced in areas to the north and we believe that recent and future wind loading could be bringing these areas closer to the tipping point.

#4- The structure of the layer is a bad setup especially below 3000'.  As stated above there was a very strong temperature inversion during the formation of the weak layer allowing surface hoar to form up to 2 cm above a rain crust that goes up to ~3000' as well.  This layer has been found to be standing up in isolated areas on the north side of Thompson Pass and can be more regularly found lying over and intact 1-2cm.  We have seen minimal natural activity below 3000' and no skier triggered activity yet.  Despite all the avalanche activity being above 3000' we should not forget about this setup as the slab changes with more load from wind and snow.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.   

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