Mt Hood

Firm crusts in the morning hours may be your primary hazard. Sagging cornices could release unexpectedly, or small wet loose avalanches aren't out of the question. At the upper edge of NWAC forecast elevations, stubborn around actively developing small cornices on lee slopes.

Tuesday will be a stormy day in the mountains, so why is the avalanche danger low? A massive avalanche cycle (over a week ago), followed by a warm temperature regime has helped the snowpack adjust more rapidly to spring-like weather, so we think that less than 0.5" of rainfall won't do much at this point. However, if you see signs that the snow is reacting differently than you expect to the incoming water, dial back your terrain selection.

Moderate SW ridgeline winds intensify throughout the day, and will be accompanied by moderate precipitation from mid-morning onward. This will fall as rain on all but the highest elevations. After days of warmth, we don't expect the rainfall to do much to the already firm, rough crusts. It could soften heavily wind affected dry snow on upper elevation shaded N and E aspects. So if you do encounter softer, mushier snow conditions, steer away from steeper slopes. Sagging cornices that haven't already fallen or slumped, may release with additional rainfall. Keep an eye to the corniced ridgelines above and reduce your exposure to overhanging cornices on the slopes below.

We're anticipating the snow line to hover around 8500 ft. Sticky snow may build small, fresh cornices and wind slabs that could be reactive above the rain-snow line. If the snow line is lower than we expect, develop into a problem within NWAC forecast elevations and not just on the upper mountain, so shift to a winter-like mindset if you ascend above the rain-snow line.

Recent observations illustrate significant loss of snow coverage on windward aspects, along ridgelines, and at lower elevations following multiple days of warm temperatures. Rocks are getting exposed, and snow bridges may become tenuous or fully melt out in some areas. Ride with caution if you're in one of these shallower snowpack areas.

Observations from the north side of the mountain have been limited, but conditions look rugged from afar with pockets of old drifted snow, scoured ice, and rain runnels from last week. NWAC forecasters spotted numerous large crowns that likely failed during last week's natural cycle. You will likely continue to find debris piles and old crowns from that impressively stormy week as you move around the mountain in the coming days. Check out the photos in the gallery for snapshot.

Are you heading out? Let us know what you see by submitting a public observation here or on the AvyApp.