Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Yesterdays storm brought 3" of new snow to the weather station at Summit Lake, but there could be quite a bit more new snow above treeline. This new snow was accompanied by strong easterly and southerly wind, which could make it easy for a person to trigger an avalanche in windblown snow up to 1.5' deep today above 2,500'. There is a smaller chance a person could trigger a much larger and more dangerous avalanche above 2,500' on weak snow buried up to 4' deep. The safest option today is to enjoy the new soft snow on low angle slopes with nothing steep above.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We’re excited to announce the annual Turnagain Pass Avalanche Awareness Day on Saturday, March 14! We will be up in the Turnagain Pass motorized lot from noon until 4 pm, along with AMDS, Anchorage Yamaha and Polaris, Anchorage Nordic Ski Patrol, Alaska Search and Rescue Dogs, and the Alaska Avalanche School. Stop by to demo a snowmachine, run through some avalanche rescue drills, or just grab a free burger or hot dog and chat with CNFAC forecasters about current avalanche conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Although Summit Lake didn't receive as much new snow as expected, it may be enough, combined with the wind transported snow, to overload a few different layers of weak snow that exist within the snowpack. We don't know exactly how much weight it will take, but it is not out of the question a person could trigger a very large avalanche up to 4' deep or more on the weak snow that developed in December. There are much higher chances a person could trigger a smaller avalanche in the new and windblown snow described above. The weight of an avalanche failing within the new snow may be enough to trigger the old weak snow and it would be incredibly difficult to survive being caught in this type of avalanche. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Natural avalanches could be occurring this morning as strong southerly wind is blowing on Summit Mountain with sustained speeds in the 20s and 30s mph. This wind is forecast to diminish through the day. With these strong winds and 3" of new snow yesterday at 1,400' (more above treeline) it could be easy for a person to trigger an avalanche just big enough to bury a person in the freshly windblown snow. Clear signs of instability include recent avalanches, shooting cracks and hearing a whumpf. These are all signs that conditions are prime for a person to trigger an avalanche and the snow needs more time to stabilize.

    The weight of a wind slab avalanche could be enough to trigger the much more dangerous problem described below. This snowpack hasn't received a new load in 2 weeks and snowpacks don't like rapid change. The safest option is to give the snow at least 24 hours to adjust to the new load before approaching slopes above 30°. It's possible, due to the weak surfaces that existed before the storm, that the instability will last longer than the normal 24 to 48 hours. 

    (3/6/2026)

    Snowfall yesterday at Summit Lake

    Photo: AK RWIS camera at Summit Lake

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