Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will increase to HIGH today as strong east winds are forecast to gust 70+ mph. Wind slabs 1 to 3’ deep will be easy for a human to trigger above 2,500’ on wind loaded slopes. Traveling in avalanche terrain is not recommended on slopes that are exposed to the wind. As the avalanche danger increases weather conditions may warrant avoiding avalanche terrain above 2,500' altogether. This zone opened to the public recently so we are not sure how stable the snowpack is in Lost Lake. Extra caution is recommended.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

This is a new forecast zone for us. We are excited to gather more information from both our field days as well as from folks out riding. If you get out in the Snug Harbor or Lost Lake areas we'd love to hear what you see. Drop us a quick note or send in some photos on our observation page if you have a minute! If you haven't seen it yet, check out our field day from Friday near V-Max.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    New wind slabs 1 to 3’ deep will be easy to trigger on slopes exposed to the wind. The storm is forecast to deliver strong ridge top winds out of the east averaging 20 to 40 mph with 70+ mph gusts and a few inches of snow before the sun begins to set. As the wind ramps up in the afternoon the avalanche danger will increase. This will make it easier for a human to trigger fresh wind slabs and increase the likelihood of natural avalanches. If you do get out today, avoid slopes that are being loaded with wind blown snow. 

    The Seward/Lost Lake zone recently opened to the public. Because of this we have limited information on the stability of the snowpack. Due to this uncertainty be extra cautious recreating in this zone. We do know that there have been large avalanches and that there is likely a lot of snow avaliable to be blown into deep wind slabs as the storm arrives. 

    Cornice: Large cornices that formed from the storm last weekend will continue to grow today. Snowmachiners on Sung Harbor found cornices with cracks so large that a snowmachine could get stuck in them.  With cracks already present and blowing snow adding weight to cornices it is likely for these to fall and trigger a natural avalanche above you. Limit exposure under slopes where this overhead hazard exists.

    Dry Loose Avalanches: There is a chance for a human to trigger a dry loose avalanche on steep slopes. Natural dry loose avalanches were observed in Turnagain Pass and Summit Lake yesterday. Watch out for these as they can carry you off cliffs and into terrain traps. 

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