Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large avalanche that fails on weak snow buried 2-3+ feet deep is possible in steep terrain today. Triggering from a distance is not out of the question. The consequences of triggering avalanches at this depth are high and warrant conservative terrain choices—identify and avoid slopes with evidence of wind drifting at the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Weak snow that formed in early December sits 1-3 feet below the surface and remains a lingering threat today. Triggering an avalanche at this depth carries severe consequences. While triggering these deeper layers is becoming less likely as time passes, it cannot be ruled out with just how much weak snow is present in this zone. This includes triggering from a distance or below the slope. The last reported human-triggered avalanche involving these weak layers occurred a little over one week ago. Thin spots in the slab are the most likely places to impact these layers. Thin spots usually exist around very steep, rocky, and wind-blown terrain features.

    Significant triggers in the form of groups, snowmobiles, and falling cornices will increase the odds of impacting these layers. Use safe travel practices to minimize your exposure to this problem. Travel one at a time across steep terrain, avoid steep gullies, and communicate plans with your group members throughout the day.

    Additional Discussion: Recent snowfall appears to be bonding well to old surfaces. No new avalanches were reported yesterday, and winds have remained light. Wind slabs were removed from the problem list today, although it remains a good idea to check for unstable wind drifts if traveling to the highest reaches of the forecast zone.

    (1/5/2025)

    Looking up from the burial site at the remotely-triggered large avalanche off the west shoulder of Brooks Lake Mountain near Breccia that occured on Jan 4th.

    Photo: Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

The knowns:

  • Recent snowfall is being compacted into harder slabs of snow at upper elevations, whereas riding in protected meadows and rolling, low-angle hills remains preserved (and fun).
  • A large, human-triggered avalanche was reported here a little over a week ago.
  • Signs of unstable snow may not be present unless you dig deeper into the snowpack. 

The unknowns:

  • How well is the new snow bonding to the old snow surfaces?
  • Will additional observations of avalanche activity show more slides that broke deeper in the snowpack or reveal new surface snow instability patterns to watch out for?
  • Where is weaker snow near the base of the snowpack still a concern? Where is it less of a concern?

The widespread weak snow at Topgwotee generally needs more time to adjust to any change—both in the form of new snowfall or temperature change and warming. I'm exercising caution and patience concerning the avalanche problems above. Being clued into the snowpack history where you ride can help inform your riding plan for the day. Until the list of "knowns" is longer than the "unknowns," keep tight margins on the terrain you choose to enter, not only about slope steepness but also the shape of that terrain and the depth/structure of snow on its slopes. Terrain traps such as creek gullies or steep features ending in flat terrain should be considered carefully and avoided.   

Please consider submitting an observation HERE. Observations allow everyone to gain a better and more complete understanding of conditions. Thank you to everyone who has submitted observations this season!

If you see avalanche activity today, please consider submitting an observation HERE. Observations allow everyone to gain a better and more complete understanding of conditions. Thanks!

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